Friday, February 15, 2008

DryShips (DRYS) Reports Excellent Number; Diana Shipping (DSX) Good But Not Enough to Beat Analysts

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I thought both reports, from DryShips (DRYS) and Diana Shipping (DSX) were quite good; but it's a game of expectations on Wall Street. DryShips beat and was up solidly, before Diana Shipping reported this morning and didn't match expectations. DryShips is benefiting from having less of their ships tied up with long term contracts. Backing out a capital gain from a sale of a ship they earned $4.50, handily beating estimates. Considering next quarter analysts are expecting $4.36 they should beat that too.
  • DryShips Inc., which owns and operates a fleet of drybulk carriers, said its fourth-quarter earnings soared more than fivefold as its expanded fleet benefited from significantly higher vessel rates.
  • The company said after the market closed Thursday it earned $195.2 million, or $5.37 per share, compared with a year-ago profit of $35.9 million, or $1.02 per share. The 2007 period included a vessel sale gain of $31.5 million, or 87 cents per share. Excluding this gain, net income was $163.7 million, or $4.50 per share.
  • Voyage revenue nearly tripled to $233.4 million, from $79.1 million in the prior-year period.
  • Analysts expected profit of $4.04 per share on revenue of $208.8 million, according to a poll by Thomson Financial.
  • The company said it owned and operated an average of 36 vessels during the 2007 fourth quarter, earning an average time charter equivalent rate of $67,587 per day. In the 2006 fourth quarter, DryShips owned and operated an average of 34 vessels, which earned an average time charter equivalent rate of $24,466 per day.
DryShips has now reversed nearly $10 today, it peaked at $90 and dropped to $80, where it sits now. This was about the area I wanted to see the stock break out too before buying [Dry Bulk Shippers - Time to Get Back In?] so it is enticing me yet again here at this level. However with the general market weakness, and an investor base full of daytraders who will run on any weakness, I am still deciding to hold off.

Technically the chart is quite nice, but I am going to see if I can get lucky and get the stock to pull back to it's 200 day moving average near $65. Probably is asking too much but no need to take outsized risk in this type of market. I could buy it at $80 and be $15 down within a few days.



No position in fund; long DryShips in personal account

2 comments:

Bluedog said...

DRYS EPS is expected to double in 2008. I bought in January in the low 50's and at $61'ish, but was stopped out before it made it's run. I'm also tracking this closely, looking for an opportunity to restart a position.

-BD

TraderMark said...

I actually bought it here for personal account near $81. Will give it a whirl. My time frame there is much shorter than for the fund... i.e. I'll be happy to exit at $90 in my real account :)

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