The volatility in this name has been extreme, and thus far it has been a losing position for me, but I have a lot of confidence in the business - the stock price is arbitrary from week to week. Mercadolibre tested $35 yet again today and has bounced smartly to $37, where I am adding another 200 shares to take this position up from 1.7% to 2.4% of the fund. This was near the price point I discovered this name in the fall, but since it was not in the Marketocracy.com database I could not buy it at the time. So now, half a year later, I am getting the same price so I am going to begin to take advantage of it, even with misgivings on the market as a whole.
The market has been rewarding washed out sectors of late, and the way technology is going - a lot of names are looking incredibly washed out.
Long Mercadolibre in fund and in personal account
4 comments:
Thanks for the tip. I bought a little MELI at $36.45.
-BD
Chart looks like a homebuilder stock !
I am keeping an eye on GOOG, AAPL - they had relatively good days today.
I am wondering if the next "wash out" rally won't be led by these guys. If the market goes down further they wont hold at these levels as we return to panic selling but they seem to have found levels at $130 and $500 respectively. We'll see if they can hold going forward. BIDU is not showing any strength though.
Mark,
you are brave buying these stocks, but with your current holding 20% short, 6% cash, you can afford to dabble. Most of your positions is less then 4% so you can afford to be wrong and hang on for the bounce, but at the end, it still a losing position. everything is still a classic ABC correction in the general market term, i don't see an up leg (in the meaningful way until spx at 1100 or close to it) i would guess to take a look again around middle end of march. In the mean time stay hedge and raise cash. There will be plenty cheap stock by then. Any company with a PE above 40, stay away, no matter how good they are. Goog, aapl sure they will bounce, but does it worth it??? can you sell at the high point? tough. First let look at the double bottom coming up (spx 1270) and see how febble they bounce, then another tripple support that don't hold ( a repeat of jan) then we can see which one is cheap, which one is dead.
Again, you assume the market will be going down. I have no idea myself. I think it will go down, and I am down on the economy but the market and the economy seem to separate for long periods of time. I think the most logical path is down but the market has a sneaky way of doing things opposite of what most anticipate.
Until we make a clear trend one way or the other I plan to stay in this hedged short of position as much as possible. Once a clear trend is established back up, there will be plenty of time to make money on the long side. So for now cautious. I actually have more than 6% cash now as I was selling down Apple, RIMM, some fertilizer etc early this week. Closer to 10%.
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