Thursday, February 21, 2008

Abject Pity for Blue Coat Systems (BCSI) - I'm Out

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I am truly feeling abject pity for Blue Coat Systems (BCSI) at this point.... much like last quarter [Nov 20: A Damn Shame - Blue Coat Systems] the company beat estimates... guided up... and AGAIN it is trading down. Unbelievable.

I said I'd wait to see how these 2 companies react to earnings (Riverbed Technology and Blue Coat Systems) and even when they beat, and raise they get sold off. So fundamentals mean nothing in these names as fears of corporate slowdown in spending seems to hang over them. This has been the case the past 3-4 months and if we continue to slowdown as an economy, it appears that they won't escape this as a 'perception' no matter what they report. Every time they report a beat and guide up, the market is simply saying "yeh but you are going to mess up eventually", and down the stocks go. I don't get it, but I am not going to argue with the market anymore.

I am going to close both positions; when the technical conditions improve I'll revisit but right now they are absolutely not reacting to a constant trail of great news.

I only had a 0.5% stake left in Blue Coat Systems (BCSI) - I am exiting this once very profitable position with a total loss of $5700. I've held this position since August 17, 07. Sold near $28.

I have a 1.4% stake in Riverbed Technology (RVBD) - I am exiting this position with a total loss of $10,800. I've held this position since day 1 of the fund - August 6, 07. Sold near $22.60.

When tech comes into favor again these names should do well, but right now there is no rhyme or reason in terms of how the market is treating them. (at least to me)
  • Blue Coat Systems Inc., a computer network provider, said Thursday its third-quarter profit soared due to a jump in product revenue. For the third quarter ended Jan. 31, net income jumped to $10.5 million, or 26 cents per share, from $42,000, or less than 1 cent per share, in the prior-year quarter.
  • Excluding stock-based compensation, expenses related to a stock option investigation and amortization charges, the company said it earned 38 cents per share. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected earnings of 33 cents per share.
  • Revenue rose 73 percent to $81.4 million from $47.1 million in the third quarter of 2007. Analysts predicted revenue of $80.1 million.
  • Blue Coat Systems Inc., a computer network provider, on Thursday predicted its first quarter profit would be higher than Wall Street estimates.
  • The company said it expects profit between 37 cents and 41 cents per share, excluding stock-based compensation and amortization charges as well as expenses related to a stock option investigation. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect earnings of 35 cents per share. Analyst estimates typically exclude one-time items.
  • The company added it expects quarterly revenue between $88 million and $91 million. Analysts predict revenue of $80.1 million.
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