Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Will There Be Anywhere Left to Shop in 2010?

Judging by the stock charts, the answer is no - not really. (I knew there had to be some solution to making Americans stop over spending!)

I wrote a piece in early November [Are Department Stores Signaling a Recession?] with the charts of Kohls (KSS), JcPenney (JCP), and Nordstrom (JWN), all in free fall. But compared to where they are now, these were great prices to get out at.

Where are we going to have left to shop? All these stocks are being priced as if on the way to $0 (but there is 1 winner left standing, seen at the bottom of this post)

*** High End Consumers, no place will be left for you...

*** Middle End Consumers, no place will be left for you...

*** Lower end? Not at Sears or Kmart

*** We can't even buy drugs...

*** or Home improvement products

*** Not even Office products?

*** But at least we can rely on women to shop for clothes right?? Not so much....

BUT - there is ALWAYS a bull market SOMEWHERE. With middle class being squeezed away by all time income inequality [Do the Bottom 80% of Americans Stand a Chance?]- smitten by job losses and inflation (I know, I know folks - the solution is cutting corporate tax rates - that always helps the middle class!), who can we rely on? Who will stand there ready to help?

There must be 1 retailer left standing which like a cockroach will survive after every other retailer goes out of business.... whose stock holding up great (what correction?) and is telling us they will be doing well in the economic tsunami... as they say stocks predict 6 months in advance, right?... so who will do well in the economy we will have in 6 months+, in this "pooring" of America scenario... where will all these formerly upward middle class and upper middle class with their knock off Gucci bags be shopping.... hmmmm...

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