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Thursday, January 24, 2008

How Quickly Fear Turns to Greed

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.... 26 hours to be exact...

The same names no one wanted 10-15% lower yesterday are now everyone's favorites again a day later....

.... oh well, at least it's not opposite day again. Was starting to feel like the Twilight Zone yesterday.

p.s. as an aside Foster Wheeler (FWLT) split 2:1 earlier this week and the results are not reflected in my Marketocracy.com performance, so it looks like I am losing quite a bunch on this large position. Hopefully this gets fixed quickly...

2 comments:

Ben said...

Nice pop in RVBD today. I was hoping you'd write about it so I didn't have to parse all the news articles myself ;) But with the amount of posts you make every day I suppose I can't blame you!

TraderMark said...

Ben, when I get paid for this full time I can post to your hearts content lol. I mentioned yesterday F5 NEtworks was moving huge off of earnings but it was mostly due to a stock buyback. FFIV was the first one last quarter to lead these guys down, and it looks like it is leading them up (BCSI/RVBD). They throw all these names in a bunch even though they are only somewhat related. I assume the JNPR news tonight will also help as people tend to view them all as "networking stocks" as opposed to differentiating the products. RVBD made a heck of a move but its just making up a lot of lost ground - ground lost unfairly I believe. But I could say that for the entire portfolio. Panic puts things at some strange valuations. If we get another day like this I might need to lighten up in that space because of risk of earnings blowup. I think these stocks are undervalued but they could be +25% or -25% after earnings... 50/50% chance. And I don't like 50/50 - otherwise I'd just go to Vegas. So maybe we'll get a nice run here in the next few days to add to todays 20% spike.

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