Earnings Season Begins Next Week

Tomorrow, after a BS labor report ... err the BLS labor report that people pay way too much attention to, but we are forced to acknowledge due to the herd mentality around it... we get to the land mine part of the quarter - earnings season. A wondrous time when we can learn more information about a company, and its future prospects - all at the low low cost of getting a leg blown off at one wrong word in guidance or conference call. Ahh, so fun. You think you are safe when the report comes out, smugly smiling to self, and then *BOOM* the CEO sneezes the wrong way in conference call and you're down in after hours. A time of 40% drops in stock prices for no good reason other than over anxious 'long term investors' are upset a company had earnings growth of 46.6% instead of the estimated 47.1%! Yes, a true reflection of our "long term investing" culture.

Looking ahead to next week, Monday is a quiet day ...

Tuesday, begins the real kick off with Alcoa (AA) the traditional "first stock that matters" to report. KB Home (KBH) will tell us how the home business continues to stink but they continue to build homes anyhow so they can continue to employ people - but I actually think this company will make it through the other side when things brighten up... in 2010. Drug development outsourcing company Pharmaceutical Product Development (PPDI) reports, this area has been doing quite well the past half year as people flee to recession proof areas - the sector is quite pricey though.

Wednesday, former #1 position (and biggest winner) and personal favorite Mosaic (MOS) will report a blowout quarter - it's just a matter of how great it will be and will its new fans be satisfied. My guess is yes but you can never judge the behavior of rabid lemmings - I hope something goes awry, and the company falls 30% so I can load up. Ok, I'd settle for 12% at this point. Ruby Tuesday (RT) will tell us how a slowing consumer and food inflation is killing them, but you knew that back in August/September. Every restaurant not named Chipotle (CMG) scares me on slowing consumer/food inputs. And Chipotle's valuation scares me. Hence all restaurants scare me. Hence I ask they come out with Ultrashort Restauraunt ETF (PIG) soon.

Thursday and Friday I don't see much of interest... and then the real fireworks begin the week after.

Long Mosaic in fund and in personal account