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Sunday, January 13, 2008

Earnings of Interest This Week

Posted by Mark at 9:19 PM TweetThis
Alcoa (AA) led us into the earnings season last week, but this week is really the first wave. Let's look ahead at some interesting names; financials will dominate the news.

Monday
Nothing too interesting - Genentech (DNA) in biotech is about all

Tuesday
Citigroup (C) - we'll see a large writeoff, news of new foreign cash infusion and possibly a dividend cut; how the stock reacts will be interesting - if we see a nice bounce we probably have put a short term low in as the "bad news is priced into the stock".

Intel (INTC) - this company has been destroyed the past week and a half. I think even if they say something like "the end of the world is not here" the stock could rally. But the stock is acting if a large earnings guide down is in store. Which is going to be the risk this entire next 4-5 weeks as we go through earnings season.

New Oriental Education (EDU) - one of the fund's holdings. I expect good things but as always it's all about results versus expectations i.e. are expectations too high?

State Street (STT) - this is an asset manager like fund holding Blackrock (BLK); pne of the few financial sectors that have held their own

Wednesday
JP Morgan (JPM) - maybe we'll get news of a buyout of Washington Mutual (WM)

Wells Fargo (WFC) - probably the best run big bank, but certainly not immune to all the issues that are and will continue to plague the consumer

Thursday
Various financial names: Ameritrade (AMTD), Bank of NY (BK), CIT Group (CIT), Comerica (CMA), others

Blackrock (BLK) - fund holding, see State Street above

IBM (IBM) - expect to see strength overseas, strength from service but weakness in hardware. This used to be a bellweather but not anymore. However I could certainly envision them saying "seeing some slowdown" blah blah

Merrill Lynch (MER) - one of the 5 investment banks - huge capital inflows, huge writedown; first of job losses might be announced

Novartis (NVS) - one of the larger foreign healthcare companies

Seagate Technologies (STX) - large disk drive maker, might push tech one way or the other

Washington Mutual (WM) - "help, someone buy us"

Friday
General Electric (GE)

Schlumberger (SLB) - large oil service name that surprised to the downside last quarter, catching us by surprise

Wipre (WIT) - Indian Outsource company

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So those will be the names I will be watching, and many of the larger caps could move the market

Posted by Mark at 9:19 PM Comments (3) | Edit This Post | Create A New Post

3 comments:

Pankaj said...

Here's something on FWLT since you own it from NC blog,

Barron’s out saying that Foster Wheeler’s (FWLT) surge is overdone and suggests investors taking money off the table. Success has made the shares start to look pricey. They trade at 21x estd ‘08 earnings. Also, this is a cyclical co. Earnings multiples are supposed to contract as profits rise in anticipation of the cycle's downside. But that doesn't appear to be happening. If the cycle runs longer than expected, such exuberance will have been justified. If not, the stock could quickly correct. Foster doesn't give earnings guidance, but has said the engineering and construction business should enjoy organic growth, potentially bolstered by an acquisition in 2008. The co's business backlog may be signaling that the cycle is in the late innings. Investors look to the backlog, though lumpy, to predict future earnings growth. The backlog grew 98% and 47%, respectively, in the 3rd and 4th quarters of '06, and slowed to 25%, 11% and 3% in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd quarters of '07, notes John Rogers, an analyst at DA Davidson.

Thoughts?

Cheers.. AJ

January 14, 2008 7:38 AM  
TraderMark said...

What is "NC" blog?

My thesis is certain sectors are turning from cylical to secular growth stories or at least the cycles are far far longer than before. In the past engineering companies weakened as the economy weakened, especially as they were focused much more on the USA. If one believes the book of business will dry up in the cominhg year or two then we are at the cycle high and one should be selling. Myself I think these companies are in the middle of 2 long term bull markets, infrastructure buildout especially in developing world (plus the rebuild of USA whenever our govt wants to upgrade our bridges, highways, water, etc) and energy buildout. So I disagree but thats what makes a market. The same arguement could be made for cyclical fertilizer companies. I've laid out why I think these are long term bull markets. And secular in nature for at least a few more years. (if not longer)

p.s. It looks like I got Intel and IBM mixed up; so much for slowing. Shows you how negative the mood is, any halfway decent news out of 'tech' and we get a nice bounce.

January 14, 2008 9:23 AM  
Pankaj said...

NC stands for NotableCalls.. :)..

Thanks for your comments as always..

January 14, 2008 10:00 AM  

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