I cannot resist buying the market leader here near $50-$51s. Adding 200 shares at these fire sale prices. This is the price this stock was trading, 2 YEARS ago. :) (and yes it was overvalued then)
BOB - Best of Breed. After all these 2nd and 3rd tier names get wiped out over the next few years, Suntech Power (STP) will be cleaning up the mess. Maybe not as sexy as those 2nd and 3rd tier names, but I am confidant it will be around in 2012, unlike many of the other names. At some point, investors will begin to differentiate between junk and quality in this sector - and when that day comes, STP will benefit. For now, too many junk companies exist in this space sucking up the oxygen. I expect by 2011 a few will be trading on the pink sheets.
Long Suntech Power in fund and in personal account
2 comments:
Mark,
Don't you think you have enough solar in your porfolio??? Does FSLR, LDK, TSL make you any money yet or they already have a nice hair cut? I still think most of these solar names run up are tied to low float, retail trade, when the float get expand with insider selling, it will not recover. Again, if you believe in the C wave coming up, these name can rally up to 50 days max then fall like a rock.
Yes I will be trimming the basket (I think I have 6 infrastructure names) once we get some bounce, so I treat them as a basket. This group is very oversold right now.
LDK, TSL have been big losers for the fund. Big ones. But the 2 cheapest on valuation method. I don't think the street trusts their numbers or mgmt. But they are trading at huge discount to rest of sector.
STP has been a winner and the name I want to keep thick or thin. FSLR I have had it at 0.2%-0.5% exposure for most of the time so not really much weighting; I only just recently took it over 1% weight on this dip, and due to valuation won't go much higher. I am hoping for an earnings disappointment to add to FSLR (maybe it would drop 25% in 1 day). If so I would add in more scale on FSLR since it has no exposure to polysilicon. I do plan to exit SOLF entirely now that it has a convertible overhang so that will be 2% less exposure to this group... soon. And I will trim the rest as the market takes them up. But overall yes, I don't want 10%+ exposure to this group. That is too much. As I said, I liked solar more about a year ago, and will like the survivors of the coming shake out more in about 2011-2012. For 2008-2010 it's going to be tricky... lots more safety in agriculture and infrastructure in my opinion.
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