While I don't agree 100% with every comment Byron Wien says in this piece, I agree 97%. And some of it is almost verbatim to things I have written. And when I write some of the harsh things I have written (especially as with yesterday talking about how the US is really falling behind in so many ways) I sit back and think "Am I overdoing it?", "Am I sounding like a sky is falling type?", "Will readers think I am anti-American or something?" (answer: no, I am simply saddened to see much of what is happening - the cost to many, for the pleasure and profit of a few - and seemingly no end to it)... but then I read a story like this from a very respected (and much older) gentleman who seems to see things through the same lense I do, and I feel better in that I am not just a bitter dude blogging evil words. ;) I've heard his name bandied about many times, but have not read a piece by him.
Granted, we could both be wrong but he states many of the reasons I have been espousing re: this won't be your 2001 type of 2 quarters and done recession/slowdown/whatever. Again, these are mostly economic thoughts and the market can rally in the face of recession or bogged down sideways economy... but for those interested in someone else's thoughts on similar topics to which I blog about daily read on:
- I'm as cautious right now as I've been in some time. Certainly since 1999. I think where I disagree with the two previous speakers is that I think what's going on here is more serious than people recognize.
- What's going on in the housing industry is going to have long-term implications. You have probably two million unsold homes out there and I think that industry is going to be in the doldrums for at least two years. That means that all the people working in industries ancillary to the housing market, like the homebuilders, the mortgage brokers and so forth, are going to have tough times. Many of them are going to be laid off.
- I think the credit situation is extremely serious. Not only are the money center banks suffering huge writeoffs and significant executive turnover as a result of it, but they are also going to have to shore up their balance sheets and they're probably going to require foreign capital in order to do that.
- In addition to that, when they get financially solidified I think they're going to be very careful in making loans. So I think it's going to be hard to borrow money when people or institutions or corporations get the enthusiasm to do that.
- I also think that America is not quite the place it once was. This is a global environment and America is losing ground. I think people underestimate the unusual position America was in after the end of World War II where we had enormous scientific talent, we had enormous manufacturing capability and the rest of the world was in economic shambles.
- Today the rest of the world is in terrific shape. Some countries, particularly China, have infrastructures superior to ours and a scientific capability that rivals ours. We still have the greatest universities in the world, but many of the students coming to train here are going back to their home countries after graduation.
- My view is that people underestimate the seriousness of the energy situation. We are only finding oil at a rate equivalent to replacing the oil production that erodes every year as a result of the existing wells getting tired.
- In addition to that, China and India are consuming less than two barrels of oil per person per year while we consume 26 barrels, Western Europe consumers 13 to 15 barrels, Japan, Korea the same amount. As China and India increase their consumption, even if the two and a half billion people there only increase their consumption a quarter of a barrel of oil per year, there's no way the world can meet that demand. So I think the price of oil is going a lot higher.
- I also think that we have to recognize that we've been running a trade deficit now for a decade -- a serious trade deficit for a decade -- and that foreign holders of dollars have become increasingly impatient. I traveled around the world twice last year. I was in the Middle East twice and in China and India and I can tell you that while they are not going to sell any U.S. bonds, they may slow down their buying of them. Our demand for the kindness of strangers to finance our deficits is going to continue inexorably. So I think that's leading to a serious situation.
- Gold is going to $1,000 an ounce probably this year. I forecast that it would go to $800 an ounce last year.
- Oil is going to probably $125 a barrel. I forecast that it would go to $80 last year.
- The dollar is going down for the reasons that I said because large holders of dollars are going to diversify into other assets and other currencies.
- Cotton is going to be the commodity of choice because the world's standard of living is increasing and the places where it's increasing fastest are warm and they don't wear wool, they wear cotton. Cotton is something nobody wants to grow. They want to grow corn instead. So, while the demand for cotton is increasing, the acreage devoted to it is decreasing and that's all you have to know.
- Finally, I think the Chinese are going to revalue the renminbi (yuan) even more than the seven percent that they did last year.
- Our portfolio is very heavily overseas, but we're in the agricultural area with Potash Corp (POT) and a lot of energy stocks.
Again, I agree with just about everything. I do think there is a potential for the dollar to be bottoming. Not because we won't continue to cut and turn into the American peso. But because I think things will worsen overseas, and the European countries will be forced to cut rates (both UK and EU) - that could help the US dollar "relatively speaking" as we bash it in the knee caps with repeated cuts. But otherwise... I agree with all he just said and have written all these things in the 6 months of the blog.
Long Potash in fund and personal account (and long any crop in the world in theory)
