- A lot of Mosaic (MOS) near $80 (fertilizer)
- Foster Wheeler (FWLT) - $135s, $136s (infrastructure)
- Suntech Power (STP) - $66s, $67s (solar leader, highest quality)
- Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI) - $55s (infrastructure)
- Peabody Energy (BTU) - $52s, $53s (coal)
- Mercadolibre (MELI) - $56s, $57s (South American internet)
I am also adding a new name to the portfolio which I will write about in further detail at a later date. It is a small cap Chinese stock (not typical of the fund) - down 12% - Chinese pork producer Zhongpin (HOGS). A reader turned me onto this stock a long time ago after I mentioned the boom in meat consumption in China, and trying to find a way to play it [Is Pork the next Chinese Boom Play?]. I was looking at Smithfield Foods (SFD) at the time and the reader turned me onto Zhongpin which at the time was an over the counter stock with symbol ZNHP [Further Analysis on Smithfield Foods]. Since then it has moved to NASDAQ, I've been reading up on it, watching how the stock trades, it has a cool new ticker, but with the same mind blowing growth. I started a 1500 share position here since this is more of a speculative stock due to small market cap so thats about $18K or a 1.5% type of position. If this stock works out it could be a multi baggers over the coming years (decade?). Only a $300M market cap.
Could the market fall further? Certainly. But gosh 8 straight down days on the NASDAQ, CFC bankruptcy rumors, unemployment popping 0.3% in 1 month, lions, tigers, bears... what else is left to throw at this market? I suppose a rocket strike on Iran could do the trick.
Long all names above in fund; long Mosaic, Zhongpin, Foster Wheeler, Suntech Power in personal account
4 comments:
Hi Mark,
You seem to have caught MOS at the bottom of its fall today. This is not the first time you seem to have really good entry points on stocks (even though you aren't attempting to "time" your entry as such). Why did you set an entry point of "near $80" on MOS? The DMAs you track didn't peg near 80 nor was there some other clear line of support here. To be clear, I like your timing; I just wish I understood it better.
Thanks,
Brian
Brian, I will be naming my first born Mosaic ;) It works for either a boy or girl right?
50 day moving average was just over $79 (I use exponential)
So when it hit $80 that was good enough for me, I bought between $80-$82, and then added a little later in the day higher.
Personally I was able to buy one of the best companies with the best earnings reports I have read this decade (actually 2, back to back with their last quarter) for a huge discount; I say thank you.
I'm looking for $120s by spring/summer (unless market collapses) which will be 50% up from today's purchases.
Hey Mark,
Different Brian here. I was curious as to why you prefer exponential moving averages. I know that exponentials weight current data more heavily, but still can't make up my mind as to which to use!
Also, how do you manage to update your blog so often with a day job! I can't imagine how much time it takes to write the number of articles you do. You've really inspired me to look for a career in investment management out of college. Any tips?? Maybe an analyst position in your new fund?? =D I kidd! I kidd!
Hi other Brian,
I just have been using exponential for a long time and when I look back at charts historically to see when stocks bounce and off what levels they seem to obey exponential lines more. I am sure someone who uses simple would argue the same.
As for the blog #1 I need to cut back #2 I type fast #3 you will notice the majority of my posts are in spurts - i.e. I'll spend 30 minutes here or there, I generally don't post between 8-9:30 AM so I can work, and then I stay late ;) But as I wrote to someone else I am trying to cut back, but when we have extraordinary periods like lately there is just a lot of to post about. Unfortunately since I started this blog the market has been very volatile with massive moves up and down, versus say Aug 06 to Jul 07 (save for a few weeks iN Feb/Mar 07) we just had a steady drip upward.
If my fund ever gets high enough in assets that I can pay someone else I would be looking for another person like me. And I can't give you any career advice because obviously I am not taking the typical path ;) I could go and be an analyst for 10 years and wait my turn, but I have been in the market longer than most of the fresh out of college MBA types who are either analysts for brokerages or funds. There is a lot to be said for just being battered by the markets for years and learning your lessons - the market is the best university in the world. But again, if this fund ever got large enough say $100M in assets I'd love to give someone else in my position the chance - just would look for passion, insight and that they could add to what I do. Or they typed faster than me so they could handle the blog while I watch the market lol.
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