Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Bookkeeping: Transactions

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This is the type of selling we saw in August - "liquidation selling" - when hedge funds (full of growth names) blowing up behind the surface and are simply selling because they have to, due to redemptions. I remember a few days like this in August, when CF Industries (CF) was moving 15-20% a day.

Here are my changes - I took the cash I raised yesterday morning by selling Mosaic (MOS) and the coal names, and sold the names holding up the best today, and bought stocks down 10-15%

Sales
MedcoHealth Solutions (MHS)
FTI Consulting (FCN)
ICICI Bank (IBN)

Purchases
Mosaic (MOS) in $88s
Potash (POT) in $128s
CF Industries (CF) in $101s
Suntech Power (STP) in $52s
Mercadolibre (MELI) in $51s
Consol Energy (CNX) in $63s

These are names on my "want list" so when the market gives them to me at such values, I will take it hand over fist. It won't help near term performance but in a few months these will be the bedrock of any out performance the fund has.

The volatility in Mosaic has been historic. Unbelievable. I am simply buying back what I sold the past 2 days, (I sold 10% of position Monday @ $104, and 15% of position Tuesday @ $107) - now getting them back in the upper $80s. I am doing the same in Consol Energy on a smaller scale - I sold down the position yesterday in the strange strength and today it was down 9%. Times like this actually work very well with my strategy to cut back when stocks move quickly and then repurchase the shares on a downfall. Usually it takes weeks for this to happen - lately its been happening in 48 hour periods. But I always keep a core position and in fact held 75% of my Mosaic through both the huge upswing and now this 2nd correction in a week.

This is capitulation selling. I will update/edit this post if I make any more transfers. I chose to go with fertilizer instead of infrastructure because in 'bear case' one could say with China and world slowing the need for projects will stall. I find that to be nonsense but 'perception is reality'. So one could at least argue that. The agriculture case - I can find no bullets so thats why I am putting more and more of my portfolio in that direction. The only thing I don't like about agriculture at this moment is it is a crowded trade meaning last summer I was one of the few in it; now everyone is on the bandwagon. But today's action should shake some off.

I am trying to find funds to buy Petrobras (PBR) and First Solar (FSLR)...

Also please notice the 10% moves in both the foreign Ultrashorts I highlighted (EEV/FXP) yesterday.

Edit @ 11:26 AM - I added Apple (AAPL) at $160. And sold HDFC Bank (HDB) to fund that purchase. My ownership in the 2 Indian Banks is now around 0.2%. Not because I don't like them, but with the bargains being created elsewhere the near term upside in other names is far greater.

Long all names mentioned in fund; long Mosaic, Potash, CF Industries, Apple, Petrobras, Mercadolibre, Suntech Power in personal account

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