I've been sticking with 5 Ultrashorts - covering commercial real estate, small caps, financials, china, and foreign emerging markets... I am going to add a technology Ultrashort ETF to make my exposure 6 names.
I am starting a position in Ultrashort Technology (REW) which can work as a hedge against my Apple, Research in Motion, etc type of positions. I'm beginning with a simple 300 share exposure (roughly $21K) or 1.9% of the fund but as with all my Ultrashorts I add/decrease these incrementally often. EDIT: Instead purchased 425 shares or 2.7% position. So if the market weakened considerably as the day passes, I'd probably add more here. The current price is $68s/$69s... in the panic lows Tuesday this spiked to low $80s.
Here is a link to the ETF's home page
and it's goal is as follows
UltraShort Technology ProShare seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Technology IndexSM
The Dow Jones US Technology Index is as follows (top 10 names)
MSFT 13%
AAPL 7.6%
CSCO 7.2%
GOOG 7.1%
INTC 6.8%
IBM 6.5%
HPQ 5.7%
ORCL 3.9%
QCOM 2.8%
DELL 2.1%
I actually like many of the names above from the long side, but again if we get some more of that panic selling, at least I have some exposure to the inverse of these positions. The reversal today in Microsoft (MSFT), which is actually down right now, after a stellar earnings report is in a word... troubling. Again, this at least gives me some NASDAQ specific "insurance".
The other name I was considering was Ultrashort QQQ (QID) which is double the inverse of the Nasdaq 100 Index
The top positions there are as follows
AAPL 13.7%
MSFT 6.5%
GOOG 5.6%
QCOM 4.1%
RIMM 3.6%
CSCO 3.3%
INTC 3.1%
ORCL 2.7%
GILD 2.4%
EBAY 1.9%
So its essentially the same theme - I overlayed the performance of the 2 instruments over 3 month and 6 month time frames and they were relatively similar; so I could of picked either one and probably will get a similar result.
Long Ultrashort Technology in fund; no personal position
Friday, January 25, 2008
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1 comments:
Mark,
You keep talking about panic selling, i am not a permabear, but the speed of selling in the last 4 weeks is clearly a sign of investor trying to protect their smallish gain in the last 5 years. Now, in term of tech stock, all these company are good one, but you value tech stock base on their growth rate, since their divident is so small, if any of this stock has less then a 15% growth rate yoy, you can kiss it goodbye. I believe they all will be contracting in the next 2 quarters at least.
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