Thursday, January 3, 2008

Bookkeeping: Adding to Illumina (ILMN)

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One of my two stocks in the healthcare field, Illumina (ILMN) is pulling back today, from recent highs so I am taking this opportunity to build this position. I've outlined the fundamental story in the past but from a technical perspective after shooting up to a recent high of mid $62s the stock has retraced and now is back near $58. With support of the 20 day moving average just below that, and the 50 day moving average at $57, we should have a decent floor under the stock.

However, just like Huron Consulting (HURN), which I discussed yesterday the stock has been unable to reach new highs and has stalled at levels seen in October, forming a double top pattern, which is not bullish. So I am going to watch how both these stocks react, as a pattern of lower highs would be the next logical step. I am starting to see a lot of these situations even in strong sectors - stocks unable to burst through their October highs - this is considered to be negative, and when more and more stocks are exhibiting the same behavior it strikes me as worrisome for overall underlying health of the market.

With that said, I am trying to increase my exposure in "non agriculture, energy, or infrastructure" areas so that when those areas invariably fall I will have something not tied in to that part of the market. However the pickings are slim out there in terms of what has growth and what is technically a relatively sound chart once you leave these areas of the markets. And that pretty much summarizes the difficulty of being a bull in this market. Very few areas show strength and those areas are very overcrowded with a lot of people... so if you are not in these very narrow slices of the market you are not able to get any real serious return. Hence they become more and more crowded. Until they tip over...

I am adding 125 shares of Illumina just above $58 to take this position from 1.8% to 2.35% of the fund.

Long Illumina and Huron Consulting in fund; long Illumina in personal account


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