Saturday, December 15, 2007

Bookkeeping: Weekly Changes to Fund Positions Week 19

Week 19 Major Position Changes

Fund positions of 1.0% or greater can be found each week in the right margin of the blog, under the label cloud and recent comments areas; I highlight weekly the larger position changes.

Being a long only fund, via Marketocracy rules, the only hedges to the downside I have are cash or buying short ETFs. I cannot short individual equities.

To see historic weekly fund changes click here OR the label at the bottom of this entry entitled 'fund positions'.

Cash: 24.2% (vs 29.7% last week)
54 long bias: 56.5% (vs 62.9% last week)
5 short bias: 19.3% (vs 7.4% last week)

59 positions (vs 57 last week)
Additions: Illumina (ILMN), MedcoHealth Solutions (MHS)
Removals: N/A

Top 10 positions = 30.9% of fund (vs 23.8% last week)
39 of the 59 positions are at least 1% of the fund's overall holdings (66.1%)

Major changes and weekly thoughts
In general this was a relatively quiet week; as the markets trended above most indexes early in the week I was looking (reluctantly) for some buys. Most of the names I liked had made some major moves already, and other names I like were still stuck below key technical levels in their charts, so I was hard pressed to find any ideas. So I mostly stuck with my large cash position (near 30% entering the week), and bid my time, making some small trims and buys. After the hysteria that was Tuesday post 2:15 PM, most of my moves entailed asset allocation adding in 2 large chunks some short exposure, first a 5% switch from cash to Ultrashort positions after the 25/25 cut, and then another 5% after the major averages technical support levels were broken. Most of the rest of the week was status quo, keeping cash high along with short exposure.

Going forward key support levels on the S&P are 1440 and 1405. We went through this just a few weeks ago. But every time a new 'intervention' is announced, the market rallies for a few days/weeks, everyone gets giddy that the federal government, which solves nearly nothing, figured out a way to stop potential recession, inflation, housing bust, credit crunch, in 1 fell swoop. So we go up when people drink the kool aid, and drop once they face reality. I keep watching LIBOR Rates (the rates banks use to lend to each other) and even with the new initiatives by world banks, they remain stubbornly high. Monday will be the first auction - I expect since these are anonymous auctions and no bank has to show their face and say "look we stink, we need this money, we are strapped for capital" all $20 billion will be voraciously gobbled up. CNBC will trumpet the bottom is in, it was a success and time to rally to all time highs. And so it will repeat. And I expect future auctions to get bigger and bigger, feeding the drug addict. Each one will be heralded as a success, CNBC will cheer, and the bottom will be in and we should rally to all time highs. So betting against the market will need to be a cautious maneuver because kool aid is this decade's crack. Unfortunately, until banks become a lot more transparent and/or a lot of time passes and people get confidence that there are not more land mines sitting on balance sheet (I am not talking weeks or months, I am talking quarters) - that's when we will see true confidence return (although I cannot imagine LIBOR rates going even higher from here?). If this were the only issue that was one thing, but a world economy where major western powers are potentially heading for "a major slowdown" combined with inflation is a whole different layer of complexity. So here and there along the way, the banks and homebuilders will rally - the calls for the bottom is in will ring out - stocks in these sectors will rally 20% as shorts furiously cover and cheers will ring out. And then we will continue down. Until enough crack is put into the patient to inflate it back to life, or it collapses under its own weight. With a political season fast approaching in the US I expect many more "plans" to be coming from both Treasury and Fed - all of which will get people giddy and happy. If one believes interventions can save the economy, I suppose one should be happy and very optimistic. Just not what I see from this end, but it's not what I see what matters - it's all about perception. When perception is that the government can fix all our ills, we go up. When reality hits, we go down. Timing it all (mood swings) is the trick. And so we go, I expect for a few quarters.

I will get a lot more bullish when a lot of expectations are taken out of earnings estimates for 2008 and a lot more people get to the point where they are down on 2008 prospects. At this point, very few are calling for downturn, and most of them joined the bandwagon in the past 2 weeks. Eternal optimism reigns. When I see persistent pessimism (or materially lower stock prices) I will get back on the bullish bandwagon full bore.

Some of the major investment banks report this week and they will probably dominate the show along with Research in Motion (RIMM).

Below are the fund changes this week - the specific rationale for each of these major moves is explained in the weekly posts which can be accessed in the left margin under archives.

Some of the larger changes (chronologically) to the fund below:

  1. Monday, in my quest to find anything to buy in case the Fed bowed to public pressure for huge cuts, I added to Shaw Group (SGR) as the stock broke above a key technical level, the 50 day moving average. This level was violated later in the week (Thursday), so I actually cut my position right back down, and actually exited the week with a smaller position than I entered the week. Why the stock is so weak with such a great backlog is beyond me; I don't view it much differently than a Foster Wheeler (FWLT) or Jacobs Engineering (JEC), but the market is not treating it well, hence I don't have much room for a major position in the fund until the market begins to like the stock more.
  2. Tuesday I was away from the computer most of the day, but as stated above made some allocation adjustments to the short (hedging) side in the afternoon post Fed.
  3. I sold down some Solarfun Holdings (SOLF) after a quick spike from my purchase last week. Just locking in some profits.
  4. I was buying some National Oilwell Varco (NOV) in the middle of the week as the stock strengthened in some terrible action. I missed out on the deep sea oil drillers so instead I bought this stock which was making a technical 'breakout' after lifting up and through its 50 day moving average. This stock is still dirt cheap in my opinion and the recent weakness has been strange action to me. NOV is back up to a top 10 position with 2.1% of the portfolio.
  5. On Thursday, even though I still like Ciena (CIEN) I cut my 0.9% position in half after 'ok' guidance and a SIV exposure confession. This is a tough environment to hold networking stocks. I think Ciena lowballed its guidance but no one cares about that now. Until the stock begins acting better technically I won't be raising exposure (unless it tanks to $30ish) or so.
  6. Friday, I added 2 healthcare names to provide some more diversity into the portfolio - MedcoHealth Solutions (MHS) and Illumina (ILMN). The former is a 'defensive' recession type of play, and the 'latter' is a growth stock that finally retreated back to support in its chart after a big move. The charts of many defensive stocks i.e. Altria (MO), Coke (KO), Procter & Gamble (PG) are doing very well, but most of these have relatively benign growth - while MedcoHealth is not exactly a high flier itself, it does have some growth component to it. Last, while higher inflation might hurt consumption of some items sold by the names above, drugs are necessities so I don't see people cutting back on those.
  7. I trimmed back fertilizer stock CF Industries (CF) as the name broke through $100, and made a 25% gain in just a few weeks.
So again, relatively quiet week in individual names. I am hoping to see either the market break down to a panic level (and stronger stocks on my buy list break down to their 50 day moving averages), or see the market return back to a good technical position before I make large outlays of purchases. With my Ultrashorts I do plan to cut back in the S&P 1440s as I expect a good fight to be put up there by the bulls, but anywhere between S&P 1405 and 1490 is just random white noise trading. Until amore long term trend is created either up or down, I will maintain a similar stance in varying degree to what I have now, as I expect choppy trading as reality fights interventions.

Ron Paul on Mad Money with Jim Cramer 12-14-07

Caught Ron Paul last night on Cramer. Amazing to see the # of reactions on YouTube. Who ever thought the Federal Reserve would ever become such a hot button topic. I also find it amusing how many high profile 'financial types' really like Dr Paul!

Fed Taking on Abusive Lending Practices

An interesting story out this weekend; it looks like the Fed is finally going to do something about the ridiculous lax standards in our mortgage industry. My thoughts (a) bravo - about time (b) why must there always be a disaster before people do anything about a problem

Again, I am a-political (meaning I think both parties are a disaster) but if Republicans are worth their salt, they should be fighting the initiatives below tooth and nail because the "free market fixes everything". After all this was the reasoning behind having little to no regulation in the first place.

In the big picture I do agree free markets fix everything... in the VERY long run. But the disclocations caused in the short and middle run can be devastating before things get to equilibrium. Unfortunately we have such wackos on both sides of the political extreme - either regulate everything to the point it does or don't regulate anything and let harm play out, that common sense approaches seem to stall. Only when we have disasters (i.e. Katrina, Enron era) does anything happen. But as long as good times are rolling and profits are piling up no one cares, about the underlying issues.

For those who hate regulation I say to you - lets get rid of the police force entirely. That is a form of regulation. Instead everyone would arm themselves and we'd move to a "Mad Max" world (think Baghdad). Tribes and clans fighting over land and resources - why just like the 11th century. That's progress! In the end the free market would solve everything... but not before extreme harm and destruction in the short and middle run. This is how I think of all regulation. Humans are at their basis self preserving. To ignore that and say "let everything sort itself out in the free market" without any check on human behavior itself is pure insanity. And the irony now is those who purport to be free marketers are the ones wailing loudest for bailouts, fed cuts, etc.

The next few things I expect to blow up in the next decade are our infrastructure (the bridge in MN is just a preview) and our air traffic control system. Both have been warned about for 20+ years as antiquated and in disrepair. But we continue to ignore them - it costs too much to fix them, and we have wars to wage after all. Until I suppose 800 people die on a bridge in NYC or 2 planes collide midair - then it will be an issue. Typical reactive (not proactive) government.

Anyhow the proposals below are actually sensible. Too bad they weren't around half a decade ago.... or 2 decades ago...

  • People taking out home mortgages may gain new protections soon against shady lending practices as the Federal Reserve seeks to back even the riskiest borrowers, already hit hardest by the housing and credit crunches.
  • The plan from the Fed, which has regulatory powers over the nation's financial system, could be finalized next year. The effective date would be know then.
  • The Fed is considering:
  • barring lenders from penalizing subprime borrowers -- those with spotty credit or low incomes -- who pay their loans off early.
  • forcing lenders to make sure that borrowers, especially subprime borrowers, set aside money to pay for taxes and insurance. (that's a concept....)
  • restricting loans that do not require proof of a borrower's income. (which were originally meant for high net worth borrowers, not Joe Six Pack making $35K a year)
  • examining lenders' failure, in some cases, to consider a borrower's ability to repay a home loan.
  • improving financial disclosure so people better understand the terms and conditions of their mortgages and get this information when it is most useful.
  • curtailing abuses in mortgage advertising.
  • The issue has taken on heightened importance given the meltdown in the housing and credit markets that has led to record numbers of home foreclosures.

Many simple solutions that a group of 10 non partisan, intelligent, men and women could sit in a room for 8 hours and figure out. But far too many special interest groups to allow it to happen ... until a national crisis develops. And then the public outcry will finally outweigh the views of those lining the pockets of our politicians.

And it will repeat... somewhere else in the system, in 4-5 years.

Friday, December 14, 2007

Bookkeeping: 'Rising Tide' Performance Week 19

Week 19 performance of the mutual fund

Comments: As always the markets were paralyzed ahead of the Fed meeting. Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse ... because if the Fed cut 25 basis points or 50 thats the difference between saving the economy or not. Yes, I write it in such a ridiculous way, because it truly is ridiculous. But that's the market for you. Well Tuesday we got the decision and the market was none too happy with it, as we got a 25 basis point Fed funds cut, with a 25 point discount cut. Markets tanks, longs cut exposure, shorts got happy. All major indexes broke key technical resistance late Tueday. Everyone was to be surprised when that evening (Tuesday) rumors were floated out of 'Fed officials' that even more initiatives were on the way. These were announced in full force 9 AM Wednesday just in time to peeve off longs and short alikes (for different reasons) - longs had cut back exposure and shorts were overextended. Well as Wednesday rolled on the market weakened all day, and after a huge morning rally broke down below the key technical levels yet again. The only thing saving the market was a suspicious buy order late in the day to get it "near" technical resistance again. The same pattern happened Thursday on a generally weak day due to inflation fears due to the PPI figure. But a 'magical' series of buying happened late in the day Thursday to push the market back again near to resistance (S&P 1490). If only....we.... could... get... above... resistance. Then Friday, CPI came out and it re-asserted what most Americans have known for 2 years (at least) - inflation is everywhere (except in government reports). Even the faulty government reports are starting to show it, no matter how hard they try to make it disappear. The market valiently tried to hold on, but weakened throughout the day, and no magical buy order was to be found late in the day as in the previous two.

For the fund, I entered the week cautious - negative on the economy but open to any movement in the market which had been drunk on the dreams of a bailout by the Fed the past few weeks. Once the decision came down Tuesday and market participants did not get what they had whined for, for weeks on ends - the babies threw a tantrum and crushed the market. Once the Fed words came out I added about 5% exposure on the Ultrashorts and another 5% once key technical levels were broken. Of course I was not happy to hear of the Fed acting like a teenager, keeping 'secrets' from us, and passing along the news that more things were in store that they didn't tell us about hours earlier. Longs originally seemed happy about the moves but then the realization that this Fed is either acting in a panicked fashion (reacting to markets) or in a terribly uncommunicative fashion (which adds risk for everyone - long and short), the longs began throwing in the towel. With a series of lower highs in the indexes I remained steadfast in the short positions and indeed despite the best efforts of "last half hour" rallies attempted out of the blue Wednesday and Thursday, I remained unconvinced... as did anyone who has been watching these markets over the years. It looked like baloney buying and it was. I also continued to cull some of the larger long positions, and kept buying at a minimum and added to more defensive areas such as healthcare. If you look at the charts of the defensive names - the Altria's (MO), the Procter & Gambles (PG), the Express Scripts (ESRX), the Coke's (KO), you see a raging bull market. Unfortunately those are recession plays, so these stocks ramping are not a good sign at all.

While I do think what the Fed is doing is (unfortunately) necessary the fact the banks have to rely on 'secret identity' auction to tap money supply instead of getting the same money that has been offered to them every day of the week through the discount window is a pretty sad statement. I do expect even more 'innovative' moves by the Fed (and Treasury department) as each week/month passes, but I am afraid the systematic issues are just too big. Until banks become less opaque and be up front about their balance sheets, they will not trust each other. That *IS* something the Fed/Treasury could force onto the system but they seem resistant. Perhaps because they know if everyone came clean it would be more scary than what we have now. If we have inflation with high growth that is 1 thing, but inflation with slow growth (or negative growth) - there is no good in that. It's very very bad.

Anyhow back to business.... the S&P 500 and Russell 1000 had terrible weeks, down 2.4% and 2.5% respectively. Readers, your future investment would of been safe sitting in Rising Tide Growth Fund as it pulled out a +0.3% return this week, outperforming the indexes by 2.7-2.8%. And as a bonus, we hit that magical $12.00 mark again (right on the dot). This puts together a nice 3 week winning streak of beating the indexes by nearly 6%. Needless to say, it was an excellent week, and my goal of beating the indexes by 15% a year is firmly on track.

Price of Rising Tide Growth: $12.000
Lifetime Performance to date (vs Aug 3, 2007): +20.00%

Comparable S&P 500: 1,468.0 (+0.20%)
Comparable Russell 1000: 799.4 (+0.40%)

Fund return vs S&P 500: +19.81%
Fund return vs Russell 1000: +19.60%

Last week's results here.

Since the market cap of the median stock in the Rising Tide Growth fund (median $9.8 Billion as of November 07) is significantly below the SP500 index (median $13.1 Billion as of September 07) but higher than the median market cap in the Russell 1000 (median market cap $5.8 Billion as of September 07), I am measuring the fund against both indexes. Click here to see all fund's holdings as of mid November 2007.

Basis for indexes is 5 day weighted average of closing prices Aug 3-9
SP500 : 1,465.2
Russell 1000 : 796.2

To see why I use the 5 day weighted average of the first 5 trading days to smooth out the volatility of the indexes as the fund launched, see here.

Please click here: fund performance for previous updates

Updated Positions

I've updated positions which can be found in the right lower margin. Obviously since the Fed decision and technical breakdown in the averages, I've gone back from neutral to bearish...

Again, I am tempering myself with about a 20% limit on Ultrashorts - otherwise I'd be more overweight in that direction :) The inability to short individual names though just truly stinks.

12 New Stocks to Buy on a Pullback

My early September entry '12 Stocks to Buy on the next Pullback' has been one of the more popular entries on the blog in its entire history. Since we are now a quarter later, and a lot more info has emerged since, I want to update this entry with a new set of choices for the coming months.

With the markets at a precarious perch, just below major resistance but certainly with the help of the 'invisible' hand could be pushed back above... but assuming the prospects of a Fed with their hands tied by the twin towers of inflation and slowing growth, let's assume some pullback is coming. What are the most interesting sectors that would be enticing on a pullback? Please note the above list only contains stocks that have yet to 'correct meaningfully'.

Last time around I focused on the following sectors with a top down approach: (less cyclical) oil service, deep sea oil drilling, solar power, networking, techology - other, global infrastructure, global agriculture, china, and retail.

Many of these same sectors strike my fancy

(Less cyclical) Oil service
I still like this area but aside from National Oilwell Varco (NOV) most still trade below a major resistance area (50 day moving average), so NOV quickly becomes *the* pick as it has recently broke out to $78. A pullback to its 50 day moving average near $71-$72 area would be enticing.

Deep Sea Oil Drilling
This whole group has broken out so it's a perfect candidate for this sort of "buy on the next pullback" review. With GlobalSantaFe (GSF) now off the table after its merger with Transocean (RIG), we have RIG, Atwood Oceanics (ATW), or Diamond Offshore (DO) as our choices. I prefer the latter two as more of pure plays in deep sea and less on rigs closer to shore... Diamond Offshore has 50 day support in the mid 110s, and Atwood Oceanics around $83. Pick 1.

Solar
A group on FIRE.... the easiest choice in terms of 'safety' and knowing what you will get is Suntech Power (STP). It currently trades at $83, and its 50 day moving average is way down there at $63, so it would take quite a calamity to correct that far. With stocks in such strong uptrends, I try to buy at least a beginning position at the 20 day moving average (currently $75) and then cross fingers for more weakness to add to it. Even with it's huge move, it is still cheaper than its American counterpart Sunpower (SPWR). First Solar (FSLR) is another candidate but with 'potential' for some slower 1st half 2008 guidance due to capacity constraints and a stock priced for more than perfection it might not be the safest to hold going into the next earnings with an investor base that demands perfection.

There are numerous more speculative fare in this sector - literally throw a dart and you hit a stock making a huge move.

Technology - Other
Out of all the teflon stocks - Google (GOOG), Apple (AAPL), Research in Motion (RIMM), Baidu.com (BIDU), Apple and Baidu.com have held up the best in the past week or two. With the clarity of the Apple roadmap, it just seems too good to pass up. We currently have Apple in the low $190s; any gift such as a pullback to the 50 day moving average ($174) would be very enticing - this will be an Apple Christmas

Global Infrastructure/Energy
I follow 7 names in this sector - the best relative strength has been shown by Foster Wheeler (FWLT), Jacobs Engineering (JEC), and Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI). Literally throw a dart, pick 2, and hope for a pullback to their 50 day moving averages. These stories will be playing out for years, even as investors switch from 1 to another on their short sighted focus simply on the next quarter.

Agriculture
I like fertilizer so much, I'd say pick 2 names - my stocks have been Mosaic (MOS), Potash (POT), and CF Industries (CF). Again, hope for a pullback to their 50 day moving averages (which they did pull back to in November), and this is where we'd want to be buying. Another multi year bull market. The fertilizer side has been much stronger than the equipment side (i.e. tractors) of late.

Financials
Yes you heard me. We have two beauties in Blackrock Financial (BLK) and Mastercard (MA). The more messy things get in the financial world, the more business that seems to be flowing to the former, and the more the world goes to plastic the more the latter benefits. If one prefers to be in the asset manager business they can go with Blackrock; if one prefers 'transactions' they can go with Mastercard. With Mastercard in the $220s and its 50 day moving average around $183, if the market would correct, this would be currently my choice of these 2.

At this point I don't see any sufficient names in China, or retail, or networking (areas I covered last time around) so I will have to find 3 new names/sector

Coal
I've been a big bull on this sector for months. We have multiple domestic names - really pick your poison among Peabody Energy (BTU), Consol Energy (CNX), or Massey Energy (MEE). I'd be adding heavily to all of these on a pullback to the 50 day moving averages as we have the quietest bull market on the street developing

Foreign non China/India
Two picks here I really like - if mining is more your bent, Mechel (MTL) the Russian coal/iron/steel maker continues to impress. If energy is more your thing we have Brazilian oil giant Petrobras (PBR). Both have pulled back from recent highs, Petrobas at $108 is 14 points above its 50 day moving average of $94. $94 is also where the stock bottomed out in the November correction so we can hope for a pullback to that level (hope being operative word). Mechel has quickly pulled back from >$100 to $94, just a bit above its 20 day moving average of $90. It's 50 day moving average is in the upper $70s and rising quickly so we can hope for a pullback there. Almost made the cut: Millicom International Cellular (MICC), but some slowdown in Latin America cell sales could be an issue - have to monitor this one closely.

India
While Chinese stocks have suffered of late, India has propsered. While I think this recent run needs some correction, that's exactly what we are hoping for. Multiple picks in India - one can go with the banking sector and find a HDFC Bank (HDB) or ICICI Bank (IBN), or if one wants a more industrial bent there is copper stock Sterlite Industries (SLT). All 3 names have corrected a bit to their 20 day moving averages but still are far above the 50 days. Pick 1.

******
So there is a quick and dirty overview of a new dozen.... all made tremendous runs of late when the market was up 5-6% from November lows, and most are holding their own in this post Fed weakness; but if the markets wake up to the fact of potential recession, growing inflation, credit crunch and weakening profits (what a combo!) - the above groups should see correction and make for solid buying opportunities. And if you want to benefit from a coming correction, may I suggest some Ultrashorts.... but that's another post.

[Please note that none of the above are buying advice for YOUR portfolio, please do your own research and determine what is best for you. And after you determine that... come invest in my mutual fund. :)]

Long all names above except deep sea oil drillers & Sunpower in fund; long Suntech Power, Mosaic, and Foster Wheeler in personal account.

Bookkeeping: Cutting back CF Industries (CF)


While this fertilizer name has had quite a run, I don't want to get too greedy, and I've simply cut back this position as we break over $100. I've cut it back to 1.3% of the fund and will let the rest run if it is so inclined. I still find CF Industries (CF) very cheap on 2008 estimates.

I will add back to this (former #1) position on any sizeable pullbacks....


2 New Positions in the Healthcare Field





Since I am mandated to have long positions, I am trying to expand out to some other areas - and am looking for things that will do ok in a more conservative environment. One could use an Altria (MO), Procter & Gamble (PG), etc. I still want some growth so I am going to move some exposure to the healthcare field. While these companies will never have rocket moves upward, since I am down to nearly 60% long exposure I need to get that up one way or the other.

One company I really like is Gilead Sciences (GILD) but this is a relatively highly valued biotech which still has some risks to it, it is currently at $46; if it drops to $44 or so, near its 50 day moving average I would probably be more interested. While $2 means nothing for a solar stock, an agriculture stock or a infrastructure stock, with more conservative companies, your entry point means a lot. As a rule I don't really play in the biotech field because many of these stocks are like gambling in Vegas - if a drug gets an approval, the stock shoots up 40%, if not it drops 50%. Not my type of thing. But Gilead has quite the pipeline, and track record and multiple drugs. However, even these "up and coming biotechs" you need to watch very closely - a peer in this area is Celgene (CELG), which not even 6 months ago was considered as promising as Gilead but whose stock has imploded. Hence, why I find this sector VERY difficult to invest in.

So instead of areas that are so dependent on FDA approval I like to invest in areas that are affiliated in the sector but not dependent on ABC drug passing phase 2 trials...

One area are the labs that the biotech and big pharma outsource some of their research work to - I have a Chinese version of this in WuXi PharmaTech (WX), but the American counterparts are doing very well. In fact a company such as Charles River Labratories (CRL) actually put out lowered (slightly) guidance for 2007 and weaker than expected 2008 guidance yesterday... and the stock is up today right to where it was before this news came out. That shows you the 'flight to safety'. There are about 4-5 stocks in this sector I am still sorting through - they have all made huge runs (for them) but despite high valuations investors keep fleeing to the safety (no recession will stop them), of this sector.

Two stocks in the pharmacy benefit management area (and are defensive) are MedcoHealth Solutions (MHS) and Express Scripts (ESRX). These stocks will do well through thick and thin, although not generally that exciting - essentially they help manage the process of delivering drugs to Americans - simple enough. Express Scripts actually generally has a higher beta (swings up and down more rapidly) but in this case I am going to buy MedcoHealth Solutions for the fund since it is closer to a support line (20 day moving average of $98.50) - and I don't see a need to buy both, and maybe Express Scripts runs up more in the near term, but I don't really want to add 2 "sort of boring" names doing the exact same thing to the portfolio.

Last, is an interesting company named Illumina (ILMN), which is one of a very small handful of companies working in the mapping of DNA - the Wall Street Journal had an interesting story on this group back in early October [DNA Decoding Maps Mainstream Future]. Interestingly, the big dog in the sector, Affymetrix (AFFX) is name near and dear to those from the late 90s - it was a market darling of the era. The 2 companies are in fact engaged in a nasty patent battle. Now again, for those used to investing in a fertilizer stock or solar stock this will be a boring name; but its exposure to the healthcare field without dealing with drug approvals and the risk to your stock imploding overnight.

Motely Fool had a