Do the Bottom 80% of Americans Stand a Chance?

While I could devote an entire blog to the long term direction of the country, I want to focus on some long term trends that I think are behind many of the issues facing the markets today. While at times "Wall Street" and "Main Street" disassociate, that cannot go on forever.

In a Minyanville.com article, touching on Friday's BS labor report... oops, I mean BLS labor report, we note

• Average hourly wages among production and nonsupervisory workers (which make up about four-fifths of the work force) rose 8 cents, to $17.63, but that put wage growth only slightly ahead of inflation.
• Adjusted for inflation, wages have fallen over the last year, from roughly $17.69 last November. And over the past four years, the inflation-adjusted hourly wage has risen by just a penny, from $17.62 in November 2003.
  

I did double check the facts and I see from the government's own website, wages for these people were $14.97 in 2002 and now are $17.63 or a 3.3% yearly increase... I went back 5 years instead of 4 to make it nice and clean (half a decade).

Why do you care? I personally think most of us active in the 'investor' class (if you will) tend to marginalize what is going on in the real world. Most in the 'investor' class tend to associate mostly with others in this class - and we miss out on the plight of the vast majority of Americans. I think this is especially true of Wall Street, which is full of the "upper 0.5%" types. Do you realize what $17.64 is on an annualized basis? $36,691. That's the 'average' guy on the street.... Main, not Wall. So let's focus on what is really happening on Main Street.

First, if you believe the inflation figures from the government, essentially for the past half decade people (by people I mean the lower 80% of Americans) are (after inflation) making no progress on their wages. They are treading water. That's if you believe the bunk in the inflation figures.

If however, you are like me and you believe reality [Bloomberg Finally Seeing the Truth on CPI], inflation is far higher than people are really falling behind.

• Since 2001, health premiums have risen 78%; Wages have gained 19% over the same period. CPI inflation measure? 17%.
• Housing is the single-largest expense for most Americans -- as much as a third of total cash outlays. During the housing boom, OFHEO had housing prices increasing 13% per year; Non-government foundations had real estate taxes increasing about 6%; Over the same period, BLS measured ‘housing cost increases’ at 4% -- about half of its actual price increases.
• Median real-estate taxes on owner-occupied housing went from $1,614 in 2005 to $1,742 in 2006, an increase of 7.93%. (That's more than double CPI inflation rate)

I am trying to think of a typical American's budget, from highest expenditure to lowest. The order would be something like (1) roof over head (2) taxes for roof over head if not a renter (3) grocery + restaurant (i.e. food expense) (4) insurances - health, home, car (5) car expense (payment + gas) (6) utilities - heating, electric, phone, internet, cable (7) clothing/discretionary

Those with kids would probably have a bit of a different expense weighting, but that in general should some it up. So if 80% of Americans can be classified as "production and non supervisory", and 60% of all Americans own a home (a very consistent figure for a long time), than many of these people are homeowners. The government tells us inflation is rising 2-3% (at worst) Any of you living in the real world know (going back to the list above)

1. Roof over head - if you are a homeowner in the most populous state, many homes have risen in value from 50-100% in the past 5 years, far higher than 2-3% a year. Those who are renters have faired better, but in general rents are going higher than 2-3% a year. So as prices were increased on homes to unsustainable levels people were forced (in the past half decade) to buy inflated assets that sucked up a huge amount of their monthly budget.
   
2. Taxes for roof - this applies only to homeowners but in general as go prices, so go home taxes
3. Food prices - while generally keeping up with inflation (or even below) earlier in the decade the past 2 years have seen sharp rises - we have outlined these in the blog, one example [Tyson Foods Continues to Point to Food Inflation]. While coming to an exact figure is difficult because this is a basket of goods and everyone buys a different basket, >10% increases in meats, poultry, dairy, etc are the 'norm' the past 24 months. A bit higher than 2-3% inflation.
4. Insurances - not only are insurance premium rising, a greater share is being pushed off from corporations to employees. If this is right or wrong is another debate, but if premiums rise 7% a year but this year an employer decides to only foot 45% of the bill instead of 52%, you get a much higher increase than 7%. And people in large population states will know home insurance has risen through the roof due to adverse weather of past half decade. So this is generally much higher than 2-3% a year.
   
5. Car prices in general have been slowly growing so I will concede new cars (due to extreme competition) are seeing price increase in line with overall 2-3% gov't inflation estimates. Gas? A whole different story. It seems like a different eon but even in 2003 gas was roughly $1.30. To reach the average $2.90-$3.00 today we are talking 100% + inflation over the past half decade.
6. Utilities - needless to say anyone heating their home not using natural gas are seeing tremendous increases in their heating/air conditioning bills. In general people are paying more (through choice) for internet service (broadband in general is double the cost of what dial up used to be), and anyone with a cable provider sees these prices increase more than 2-3% a year.

So those are the main components of life. Yes, many discretionary items such as electronics get cheaper every year and/or for the same amount of money you get a lot more powerful product - but those are items at the tail end of a budget - not the items you 'must have' (roof, food, transportation). Also please keep in mind in the "very long term", Americans are now being asked to save for themselves for retirement. Before corporations were more involved (rightly or wrongly) with pensions. Now, 401ks are the game of the day. So with all the items above, one must also devote to 'self saving' for retirement, since there will be little to nothing there from other sources (certainly for most of us under 40 years old). So some income needs to go to that area, whereas a decade ago, that was far less of a consideration. However if the average non production/non supervisory worker is making $37,000 how is he/she saving for retirement? Even those making $60,000 will be having difficulties in our 'consumption culture' where everyone must have a HDTV as an American right of birth. I am now reading how 401k withdrawels in the past 6 months are reaching the highest levels seen. Why? People will tap every source of income they can now that the house ATM is gone. You don't think this has terrible long term consequences?

One of my main arguments has been with the explosion of home equity withdrawals the past half decade, people who are otherwise struggling, have been able to maintain their living standards and mask their growing expenses (growing at far higher rate than government 'reports'). Most of America *is* falling behind. And with the first nationwide decrease (ever) in home values, the gig is up. If income inequality is good or bad can be debated for days, but facts are facts [NYT: Income Gap is Widening]

• Income inequality grew significantly in 2005, with the top 1 percent of Americans — those with incomes that year of more than $348,000 — receiving their largest share of national income since 1928, analysis of newly released tax data shows.
• The top 10 percent, roughly those earning more than $100,000, also reached a level of income share not seen since before the Depression.
• While total reported income in the United States increased almost 9 percent in 2005, the most recent year for which such data is available, average incomes for those in the bottom 90 percent dipped slightly compared with the year before, dropping $172, or 0.6 percent. The gains went largely to the top 1 percent, whose incomes rose to an average of more than $1.1 million each, an increase of more than $139,000, or about 14 percent.
• The new data also shows that the top 300,000 Americans collectively enjoyed almost as much income as the bottom 150 million Americans. Per person, the top group received 440 times as much as the average person in the bottom half earned, nearly doubling the gap from 1980.
• The top 1 percent received 21.8 percent of all reported income in 2005, up significantly from 19.8 percent the year before and more than double their share of income in 1980. The peak was in 1928, when the top 1 percent reported 23.9 percent of all income.

Again this is not meant to be a political debate. If one believes in trickle down economics than "eventually" gains seen in the top should 'trickle down' to everyone else. Evidence seems to be mounting against this. But I want to focus on the facts. The 'consumerism' in America relies on the majority - not the top 1%. If one believes having income distribution strata similar to seen right before the Great Depression is a healthy path, than America has not been this 'healthy' in close to 8 decades. I think this lack of wage growth speaks to a greater trend of income 'equality' for the 'working class' across the globe - this, I argue, means great things for 'human kind' as people across the globe move to more of a global mean income. [This is already happening in the 'upper class' as a [Global millionaire Boom] has started, so why would it not happen on the bottom end as well?] But it portends very bad things for those, in the working class, who have enjoyed well above average wages in the past, as reversion to the mean simply means those above the mean, get driven down to the global wage, and those below the mean, get drive up to the global wage. I don't think it is right to argue that globalization is 'bad' or 'good' - it has good and bad components for each participant. However, having no policies in place for the many Americans who are being 'dislocated' by this global force is a mistake. And to ignore their plight is quite a sad development.

These forces are why people sit and scratch their head and say, look US GDP growth is roaring, we are having great time in aggregate - I have no idea why the average American is feeling so uneasy the past half decade - if you look at the 'numbers' they should be feeling great. But to look at the 'macro' without looking at the 'micro' leads to incorrect assumptions. Much like erosion, these trends happen incrementally, and over long periods of time - you don't wake up one day and feel 9% poorer - hence it is not so noticeable. Until you step back and look at it over a 5 year, or 10 year period. And then the writing is on the wall. Unless wages start rising in a massive manner in the US for the lower 80%, I just don't see where the reversal is....

Again, I keep hearing 4.5% of GDP is due to housing... a very easy term to throw around. I'd argue a whole class of people have been keeping their head above water due to an asset (their homes) inflated to unsustainable levels - this allowed them to extract equity to live their lifestyle - as their costs increases at levels 2-3x their wage gains. Now that this game is over - what does 2008-2009 portend for the "80%"?

I think this 'bailout' is just step 1... much much more than 4.5% of GDP is reliant on home prices remaining at inflated prices. This will be an interesting time - watching politicos do everything in their power from stopping the free market from working, and keeping asset prices that much of our consumerism is reliant on from dropping much further.... all with a background of growing worldwide shortages [A World of Shortages]- and hence sustainable inflation, whatever the Fed does or not do. I know I sound like a dismal scientist, and quite the downer - but I just find it hard to see the US not seeing a major slowdown in the year ahead. The tech bubble, while painful for the investor class and pieces of the 'working class' who started buying tech mutual funds in their 401k was one thing. The equivalent of a tech bubble in the real estate market which impacts much more of the people is a whole different animal. Forget Iraq, the economy will BE the end all and be all issue for the 2008 presidential election.

Bookkeeping: 'Rising Tide' Performance Week 18

Week 18 performance of the mutual fund

Comments: After a slow start to the week Monday - Tuesday, the market put in 2 strong days Wednesday and Thursday on the heels of consensus forming for rate cuts, potentially strong ones coming next week; along with a bailo....errr, assistance plan from the government for a small sliver of the mortgage market. While not in reality things that will help the fundamentals of the credit market much, they did sway sentiment to the bull's side. From a technical perspective after Thursday's rally, major indexes finally broke through some key technical 'resistance levels', and now sit poised above. Friday the market sat on its hands and as per usual ahead of Fed meetings no one can do anything or make any decision until we see what the Feds on Mount Olympus do.

For the fund, kept a cautious outlook Monday and Tuesday which helped performance; on the large rallies Wednesday and Thursday many groups that have been shunned for months (retail/ financial/ homebuilders) caught a bid and were the apple of everyone's eyes since bailouts... err, government solutions apparently fix everything - so the fund lagged those days. Most of the week I was selling into the strength and lightening up position sizes; after we "turned" technically positive on Thursday afternoon, I have changed my very near term mood to "reluctantly a bull". I have been searching for things to buy but other than chasing stocks that already made large moves (not my preference) it is hard to find much.

Now we just sit on our hands and wait for Mount Olympus to decide what us peons in the netherlands should do - if Mount Olympus does not cut enough than attitudes could turn negative on a dime and back down we go. If Mount Olympus does enough to appease the peasants than away we go to new all time highs in the face of the some worst economic problems approaching that we've seen this generation. But a few snaps of a government finger, along with heavy doses of liquidity and the equity (not bond) market believes it is all 'contained'. So I remain intellectually bearish while allowing the fact happy animal spirits may reign in the near term; but not trusting those spirits one bit. (remember what happened in November after the happy spirits of September and early October disappeared)

This week, the S&P 500 was up 1.6% and Russell 1000 was up 1.7%. Despite a very heavy cash exposure this week and (until mid day Thursday) a very high short exposure Rising Tide Growth Fund outperformed again on the back of long positions the market rushed back to; the fund was able to return 3.4% despite sitting with nearly 30% cash. If the market roars forward I expect to only "peer perform" or possibly trail the market for a bit, but rallies in the market have very little underpinnings with reality in the economy so it is hard to throw money into long positions with a blind eye. The ones I do have are outperforming so I can remain cautious and still maintain pace. At this point the fund has pulled away from the indexes measured against, by the largest amount since inception.

Price of Rising Tide Growth: $11.967
Lifetime Performance to date (vs Aug 3, 2007): +19.67%

Comparable S&P 500: 1,504.7 (+2.69%)
Comparable Russell 1000: 820.2 (+3.01%)

Fund return vs S&P 500: +16.98%
Fund return vs Russell 1000: +16.66%

Last week's results here.

Since the market cap of the median stock in the Rising Tide Growth fund (median $9.8 Billion as of November 07) is significantly below the SP500 index (median $13.1 Billion as of September 07) but higher than the median market cap in the Russell 1000 (median market cap $5.8 Billion as of September 07), I am measuring the fund against both indexes. Click here to see all fund's holdings as of mid November 2007.

Basis for indexes is 5 day weighted average of closing prices Aug 3-9
SP500 : 1,465.2
Russell 1000 : 796.2

To see why I use the 5 day weighted average of the first 5 trading days to smooth out the volatility of the indexes as the fund launched, see here.

Please click here: fund performance for previous updates

Infrastructure Group Continues to Impress

I mentioned Sunday night the Infrastructure Group recovery [Quite a Recovery for Infrastructure Group] - some of these charts are absolute things of beauty now that the market has simple bounced a bit. Coming into the week, all but McDermott had regained the 50 day moving average and looked poised for nice moves up, if the market would just be benign for a while.

I put these stocks into 3 groups right now based on technicals...

A) The following 3 charts look identical - and we've reached all time highs in all 3 names: Foster Wheeler (FWLT), Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI), Jacobs Engineering (JEC)







B) KBR (KBR), Fluor (FLR) have cleared resistance very nicely and are making nice moves, but not at all time highs. Technically nice positions but can be expected to pull back to support if market weakens.

C) Bringing up the rear in the category of 'finally' pushing back through resistance are McDermott (MDR) and Shaw Group (SGR). These still stand a chance of falling through their main line of support (50 day moving average) if the market weakens.

I am a little perplexed with Shaw Group - they reported earnings October 10th, yet somehow reported earnings again yesterday which is less than 2 months later. Very strange; I must assume last quarter's (Oct 10th) report was filed very late. They did 'miss', but the backlog is just tremendous - $14.7B, up 57% year over year. I just have to go investigate how they reported 2 quarters so quickly.

As always the big boys "knew" ahead of "us"... Shaw Group, after a great earnings 2 months ago, rallied hard, corrected like the rest of the group but was much weaker on the recovery - which I kept mentioning was strange considering how good the last earnings report was. Well now we know why. Funny how price action normally telegraphs the news ahead of time, isn't it? Funny in a 'this game is sure not an even playing field' kind of way.

Long all names except Fluor in fund; long Foster Wheeler in personal account

New Poll! Please Vote

Every 6 weeks we check in to see how much our dollars will become devalued... once again we ask you blog readers to give us your predictions on how hard the printing presses will be working - I am making the task even harder - now that the discount rate is getting slashed every 6 weeks, you have to predict both the Fed funds rate and the Discount Rate

I've given every choice from a 'shock and awe' 50 Fed funds cut/75 basis point cut to a (fear it) increase in interest rates (which would drop the market probably 2000 pts)

Winners receive nothing other than prestige and an "I told you so" moment. So please, let us know what you think as we slowly but surely return to the 2001 era of free money for everyone. Just remember, please don't dare try to travel outside the country where your dollar means nothing (except in Mexico)

Our next poll will be "What's your favorite "it's (not a) bailout" plan coming in spring 2008" - feel free to post nominations in comments section. ;) I'm going to begin with my proposals of
(a) $10,000 free to every homeowner in America who took a subprime loan and is now upside down on their house - they deserve it! And it's not a bailout....
and
(b) freezing all home prices at where they are today , so NO one suffers the indignity of having their home price adjust to where the market deems fair (i.e. lower)

Next Prediction Coming True - Auto Loans Going Bad

Well my predictions from Tuesday's post [Et tu, 1st Half 2008? Predictions for the coming 6 months] are already coming true, in much quicker fashion than anticipated. First came central banks ignoring inflation to start cutting rates in unison to bail out the US (first Canada, then UK, more to come)

Now? Auto loans...

I wrote Tuesday:
Auto sales will see a horrid 2008 for all the same reasons mentioned above - negative wealth effect, lack of confidence, inability to finance via home, wage stagnation in the face of real inflation.

I should of added the thoughts about auto loans following same pattern as mortgages, but the knee bone is connected to the jaw bone is connected to the elbow... once you are late on mortgage, then comes car, then comes credit card - you get the picture. I guess if you can't keep up payments on your current car it is going to be tough to be out there for a new car next year. Here comes the auto loans per WSJ

• Now, signs of stress are creeping into another key consumer area: auto loans. Delinquencies in the auto-loan market are ticking up to their highest level in several years. Lenders are tightening terms in some cases, and interest rates have risen from the rock-bottom levels of a few years ago.
• About 4.5% of auto loans made in 2006 to top-rated borrowers were at least 30 days delinquent as of the end of September, up from 2.9% the previous month, according to a Lehman Brothers survey of companies servicing these loans. That is the biggest one-month jump in at least eight years.
• Lehman says 12% of subprime borrowers, who have poorer credit records, were delinquent on their 2006 auto loans as of September. That is the highest level since 2002 and up from 11.1% the previous month.

• "The numbers will get worse for auto loans," says Dan Castro of GSC Group, a New York firm that runs debt-related investment funds. "We're starting to see signs of rising losses, and delinquencies are creeping up."

• The trouble signs in auto loans suggest that the credit woes could be spreading to the broader economy, a development that has been worrying investors and policy makers in Washington.
• The typical delinquent borrower in a car loan isn't a speculator but someone who became unable to make what previously seemed like a manageable payment. That is why car delinquencies are closely linked to the health of the economy.

• Many auto loans undergo the same Wall Street financial engineering as the mortgage loans that stand at the center of the credit crisis, making this a potential issue for investors. Auto loans often are bundled together into securities, sliced and diced into pieces with varying levels of risk and return, and sold to investors around the world.

• In 2006, $89 billion of auto loans were packaged into asset-backed securities and sold to investors, according to Standard & Poor's, making it the biggest asset class for such securities next to mortgages and credit cards.

• Borrower problems also could deal a blow to the already-struggling auto industry. Auto sales held up during the 2001 recession in part because lenders were able to offer easy borrowing terms. If lenders tighten terms in response to the delinquencies, it would make it harder for some people to buy cars.

• There are reasons to believe the problems in auto loans won't reach crisis levels. Auto lenders and credit counselors say many consumers see their cars as a necessity and would sooner hand back the keys to a home and look for a rental than default on a car loan.
  

• Still, auto loans, like home loans, saw credit standards loosen in 2005 and 2006. CarMax Inc., of Richmond, Va., the largest used-car retailer in the country, said at the end of 2005 it lowered lending standards. For example, it allowed consumers to put down less money to buy more expensive vehicles. Car Max made about 140,000 car loans last year.
  

  "We had been too strict and wanted to make more loans and maximize profitability. We expected our delinquencies and losses would go up, but they are up higher than we thought," said Katharine Kenny, head of investor relations at CarMax.

******
Takeaways:

1. Obviously car loans are not nearly as big of an issue but this is another sympton... of a disease. Instead of treating the root cause of disease we put band aids on the parts of the body that should be 'expunged' anyhow. For votes.
2. Notice the spread to prime grade borrowers. As I keep saying, its not a subprime issue - its basic lack of affordability, stress on every 'average family' to pay all these bills, in a relatively stagnant wage environment, with high inflation and inability to draw equity from their homes. This is the big issue. Not subprime loans to people who shouldn't of had loans in the first place.
3. Notice the securitization. The same bad habits. And trust me, its not car loans that will be the 'next big thing' - think credit cards. Think 2008. Think where all these CDOs chock full of credit cards (not secured by anything, not even a house) are sitting. Possibly in your state treasuries office. It's all tied together. And it's all coming no matter what Wall Street (equity market) believes. The bond market knows...
4. Again all this and we are coming of a supposed 5% GDP 3rd quarter (yeh right)? What happens in a normal quarter? Or below trend GDP quarter?
   
5. And I know no one cares about the auto industry anymore, but it does employ real people with real jobs and real spending. As the pool of new car sales contracts, it will hurt a lot of people - in both domestic and foreign plants... and their suppliers... and their supplier's suppliers. It's all connected. Virtuous on the way up. Not so much on the way down. No matter what bailouts we attempt.
   

This is why you have to listen to these companies, not these government report. Whatever comes out tomorrow by the BLS, is just that... without the L. BS. So let's enjoy our gains, take them where we can get them and realize 2008 will not be a good year for the economy. The market discounts 6 months out... this one is discounting out 2.5 years and ignoring everything between now and middle 2009. When the equity market chooses to acknowledge that the Fed is not bigger than the economy... well this is an open question. But these are the real trends and at some point Main Street and Wall Street must meet.

=========================================================

Getting auto insurance is a mandatory measure before going for any kind of mortgage. This is important particularly for creditcard users, because people seldom read any of their free credit reports or they would realize the hazards that come with one. An online credit card instead can be a good way to start using one. At least that will spare one from payday loans.
=========================================================

European Central Bank Holds Rates - Some Members Wanted an Increase

Fascinating....

Ok fascinating to me at least. Not only did the European Central Bank hold rates steady, some members wanted to see an increase due to rising inflation. How dare they. We could always send the US team on "inflation measurement" on a trip abroad to teach them how it's all how you measure. And just like that you can make your country's inflation disappear. Then you can cut rates to help bail the USA out, since your inflation problem is done with. Wait, we solved our credit problems this afternoon in Washington. All gone. So we don't need Fed cuts here either. Wait, no we do need cuts. Wait... ok I am just confused. Whose on first?

Look, even Argentina has figured out the US methodology of inflation measurement - it's simple - tell the people there is no inflation, and inflation will go poof! Magic! Except umm... apparently the people of Argentina are not believing it. Well who said we don't export things in the US - we export measurements of inflation.

• Argentine first lady and presidential candidate Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner defended the accuracy of the government's official inflation data on Monday, while shopkeepers and consumers boycott tomatoes over soaring prices.

• As Argentines prepare for presidential elections on October 28, analysts, consumer groups and opposition politicians contend that data reported by the INDEC national statistics agency is about half the actual inflation rate.

• "Under no circumstance is the inflation rate what the opposition says. It's the INDEC rate," Fernandez told Argentine business leaders at a lunch gathering, adding that inflation was "more than reasonable" for an economy growing more than 8 percent per year since 2003.

• The government expects consumer prices to rise less than 10 percent in 2007, similar to 2006, but critics say actual inflation is as high as 20 percent.

Hmmm... sounds vaguely familiar. People - get out there and boycott your fresh produce! We need to teach this government a lesson. We are not taking it anymore. Down with tangerines!

Anyhow back with that insurgent ECB (if you don't stand with our Fed, you stand against it!)

• The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged as policy makers weigh the risks of accelerating inflation against signs of slowing economic growth. The ECB kept the benchmark refinancing rate at 4 percent today, as predicted by all 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. ``Some'' members in the 19-member Governing Council voted for an increase, President Jean-Claude Trichet said.

• Soaring food and energy prices have pushed inflation to the highest in more than six years, just as an appreciating euro and higher credit costs threaten to slow economic growth in the 13- nation euro region. The ECB today raised its inflation forecast for next year and signaled concern that workers would ask for more pay to compensate higher costs. (I believe that's called stagflation; thankfully in the USA we do NOT have inflation - therefore we only have a recession)

• Trichet said today the ECB expects inflation to remain ``significantly'' above 2 percent in coming months before ``moderating somewhat in the course of 2008.'' In November, inflation accelerated to 3 percent, exceeding the ECB's limit for a third straight month.

• The ECB shelved a planned rate increase in September and has since kept rates on hold after the U.S. housing recession made banks reluctant to lend, driving up the cost of credit. While the ECB has offered banks extra cash to encourage lending, the cost of borrowing in euros for three months jumped to a seven-year high this week.

You'll cut soon enough my friends - expect a call from a man with a Texas drawl soon enough... remember, either with us, or against us! Resistance is futile. If we don't fight the inflation there, we will have to fight it on our own soil!

Not that we have inflation, but I am just saying in theory...

Long 'freedom fighters' such as ECB!

Adding Solar Exposure Today - Solarfun Power (SOLF) and Suntech Power (STP)

The two companies in the solar space I have the most personal investment experience with are Suntech Power (STP) and Solarfun Power (SOLF). Suntech Power is an established Chinese leader and up until last week Solarfun Power has been a wayward 2nd tier player with untapped potential. After a series of fumbling quarters, the company finally came through and "investors" (I use that word lightly) rewarded it with a >100% return in a week. While the quarter was good I believe Solarfun Power really benefited from a dearth of other '