Monday, December 17, 2007

Who Will Be Last to Fall?

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Interesting to watch which sectors have been getting hit, and in which order

In November while the market corrected 4 sectors stood strong - teflon tech stocks (the big cap names everyone knows, Apple, Google et al), solar, agriculture, and infrastructure. For about a week and a half, when the market first began to degrade these names refused to go down. Then in order, they fell - first the teflon tech stocks, then the next day the solars, then the following day finally in 1 horrific day long implosion (you can see the huge spike down in the fund performance) down went the agriculture and infrastructure stocks.

We seem to be entering a similar time frame now (short of a big recovery in the markets). Solar, while down a bit today, is up huge in the recovery and is holding most of its gains, the teflon tech stocks have been relatively benign (not going up a lot but not going down a lot either), infrastructure this time around is more of a mixed bag (some names are already imploding), and in the agriculture space the fertilizer stocks have been bulletproof. Another sector also has held up very well - coal.

So if this pattern repeats as it played out last time (no guarantee) - these sectors will hold up while the rest of the market slowly crumbles, and investors in these groups will be giddy that they won't be affected by any correction. And then suddenly out of the blue these stocks will take 10-20% corrections in a matter of hours/days. So this is what I am observing to see if we see a similar playbook as we did just over a month ago. I am using solar, fertilizer, and coal as my tells as these are the 3 strongest sectors in my universe. Along with Apple and Mastercard. If these go, we all go....

I have my buying list at the ready.

2 comments:

pik said...

It'll be interesting to watch the "teflon" stocks fall. If I recall CSCO quintessential teflon stock prior to 2000. It remember buddies saying they would never sell their CSCO stock when it was in the 100's. Just take a look at that chart its obvious that any teflon stock can easily become charred. I am in waiting mode....no rush...I will let the trend come to me...right now we are just floundering which is the most dangerous time to trade.

TraderMark said...

yep patience is key

I will scale in slowly with the cash available to some of the most stricken. I do expect 'denial' to be the state of the game for quite a while still. I am hoping to see Apple back in the $160s ahead of what I expect to be a tremendous earnings report but it will take some full scale fear.

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