Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Top 10 Winners and Losers so Far

Posted by TraderMark at 6:18 PM TweetThis
Thought it would be interesting to see which stocks have contributed the most and least to the fund since inception in August 2007.

Here is a breakdown - interesting that none of the sexy names people talk about in technology are anywhere to be found, Apple, Google, Baidu.com etc. Instead my winners are generally such sexy industries as fertilizer, coal, infrastructure, and short?

Top 10 Winners
Mosaic (MOS) +28.3K - fertilizer
CF Industries (CF) +22.7K - fertilizer
Ultrashort Financial (SKF) +15.0K
Suntech Power (STP) +12.4K - solar
Consol Energy (CNX) 11.7K - coal
Foster Wheeler (FWLT) +10.8K - infrastructure
Mastercard (MA) +10.1K - credit cards
Peabody Energy (BTU) +9.2K - coal
Ciena (CIEN) +9.2K - networking
Ultrashort Real Estate (SRS) +9.2K

Top 10 Losers
Riverbed Technology (RVBD) -9.8K -networking
LDK Solar (LDK) -9.5K -solar
NII Holdings (NIHD) -8.6K -cell phone
Trina Solar (TSL) -3.7K -solar
WuXi Pharmatech (WX) -3.6K -pharma outsourcing
Excel Maritime Carriers (EXM) -3.4K -dry bulk shipping
Western Refining (WNR) -3.0K -refining
CGG Veritas (CGV) -2.8K -oil services
JA Solar (JASO) -2.7K -solar
Tesoro (TSO) -2.5K -refining

Funny to notice I have 3 losers in one of the hottest (and most volatile) sectors in the market - solar. Shows you that timing means a lot in this group since the volatility has been enormous; also my style works poorly in a 'mania' type of condition - when stocks that are up 30% one day get a flood of daytraders to buy the next day and to push a stock up 25% the next day (I am selling out while daytraders are piling in). Also when you make mistakes, if you can cut the losses quickly it will help as my top 10 losers are far smaller amounts than the top 10 winners gained. A couple of these went on to be far bigger losers - the refiners especially WNR, Excel Maritime imploded after I sold, and Trina Solar also crumpled. LDK Solar I just didn't want to gamble on an audit I had no advantage of information on; I could of easily reversed the big loss with a huge gain if I had bet a lot of chips and the 50/50 bet went my way; but I also could of risked even more capital chasing a 'guess' so I can live with that. As for Riverbed Technology, well it's just starting to get ridiculous - this is my personal black hole and in fact I bought more today. While I have cut back my NII Holdings severely it continues to take on massive amounts of water. I am just shocked at how poorly it has performed considering its a solid long term growth story but apparently the end of business in Latin America is being priced into this stock.

Posted by TraderMark at 6:18 PM Comments (5) | Edit This Post | Create A New Post

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5 comments:

pik said...

There are some nice winners here Mark...good job.

What is the total return of your fund this year? Is this a number you can keep posted on your blog and have it change dynamically everyday?

December 19, 2007 8:10 AM  
TraderMark said...

I post it every week! "fund performance" And on the left margin if you click on the orange link "Rising Tide Growth Fund" it shows the up to date performance with a 1 day lag. Keep in mind my "Year to Date" has been since early August, when obviously the "Year to Date" that Marketocracy.com uses has been since Jan 1st. Jan 1st through August 1 was a lot kinder time than August 3rd to now! :)

December 19, 2007 9:13 AM  
Parker Capital Management said...

NIHD is turning into my black hole. I doubled up at 46 just to see if fall to 43. This stock was 90 a few months ago...I still think its oversold but it will likely take time to rebound.

December 19, 2007 9:19 AM  
Pankaj said...

Mark... Surprised not to see CROX in your loosers list.. Are you still adding to it at these levels?

Cheers..

December 19, 2007 1:29 PM  
TraderMark said...

most original purchases of CROX were in upper 40s to mid 50s in Aug - mid Sept. Most of that was sold in mid 60s to low 70s. Then I started buying back in laers in low 50s to mid 30s. Sold some off in low 40s. It just missed the list at -$2.1K :)
I have at this time some unrealized losses sitting against a lot of booked gains so all in all, considering the stock chart the past 2 months, I am happy with the result.

Fundamentals on CROX I like. Technicals provide no help though. Its range bound so no real opinion unless it breaks down to mid 30s again or starts making a move - it tried about 2 weeks ago but failed. Its just in monitor mode. I think the valuation is very compelling though but now it burnt the street and had a large inventory number which will concern people - plus retail is outright hated now. ALthough Crox gets lots of sales internationally. Remaining patient.

December 19, 2007 2:09 PM  

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