I don't see any clear catalyst today but the fertilizer group on my watch list is just flying
TNH +7.8%
CF +7.7%
MOS +6.8%
AGU +5.9%
POT +4.7%
In a flat tape, even more impressive. Even MOO is up 3.4%. I can't find any specific reason why - if you happen to know throw a message into a reply to this post.
While I hate the financials, a lot of bad news has been thrown at the market of late and its sitting flattish of late - with Research in Motion (RIMM) coming tonight and I expect good news we might get a quick Santa Claus rally at least to S&P 1490 level or so. Let's see how it plays out. I wouldn't mind a market that rewards winners and punishes losers but it seems for most of the past 4 months its been an 'everything stinks' or 'everything must go up' type of market. The worry is every day you wake up and the next shoe in financials is going to drop everything in your portfolio...
Long CF Industries, Mosaic, Potash in fund; long Mosaic in personal account
Support This Blog
Recent Posts
Most Visited Sites
Sites I Wish I Had More Time To Read
- Newsflashr
- FinViz.com
- Zero Hedge
- Wall St Cheet Sheat
- Naked Capitalism
- Baseline Scenario
- Abnormal Returns
- TickerSpy
- Financial Armageddon
- Infectious Greed
- FT.com Alphaville.com
- 24/7 Wall Street
- The Daily Bail
- Matt Taibbi Blog
- Calculated Risk
- NYMag
- Real Clear Markets
- All About Trends
- Carpe Diem
- What's Trading
- Finz.tv
- Zentrader
- The Financial Ninja
- Daily Options Report
- Markman
- Notable Calls
- UpsideTrader
- The Smart Money Tracker
- Stock Trading to Go
- Nouriel Roubini's Blog
- Dealbreaker
- Investment Postcards
- Toro's Running of the Bulls
- Barron's Tech Trader Daily
- Market Oracle
- StraightStocks
- FINAlternatives (Hedge Funds)
- Money and Markets
- The Market Speculator
- Contrarian Profits
- Wall Street Blips
- Wall$treet Fighter
- StreetInsider Analysts News
- Blogging Stocks (AOL)
- The Daily Reckoning
- 1440 Wall Street
- HedgeFolios
- ETF Trends
- Hedge Fund Consultant Blog
- Daily Options Report
- Get Rich Slick
- Wall $treet Folly
- Guru Focus
- Fundmastery
- The Fly on the Wall
- Bill Gross PIMCO Archives
- MrSwing.com
Our Readers' Websites
Industry Focus Sites
- Forex Trading
- US Debt Clock
- Bloomberg Bond Yields
- List of ADRs by Country
- Mr. Copper (Kitco)
- Gas Price by State
- Mortgage Trends
- Debt Maturations
- Form 4 Oracle - Insider Filings
- Chinese Stocks
- Greentech Media
- gnuTrade
- MineWeb
- SPDR ETFs Chart
- Coal Future Pricing - Europe
- Coal Pricing - US
- Baltic Exchange Dry Index
- Solar Feeds
- The Housing Bubble
- HousingPANIC
- BusinessofVideo.com (CDNs)
Some Mutual Funds That Perk My Interest
- CGM Mutual (Kenneth Heebner)
- CGM Focus (Kenneth Heebner)
- Quaker Strategic Growth
- Loomis Sayles Mid Cap Growth
- Bridgeway Aggressive Investors
- Eaton Vance Multi Cap Growth
- Saratoga Large Cap Growth
- AFBA Five Star Large Cap
- American Century Vista
- American Century Heritage
- TCW Growth Equities
- Dynamic Power American Growth (Noah Blackstein)
- Dover Long/Short Sector Fund
Contact Me
Archives By Topic
Weekly Most Read
- 1: Dennis Gartman: Gold is in a "Bubble", Meredith Whitney Just Confused
- 2: George Soros Reveals Stake in Ford, Adds to Walmart, Cuts Petrobras
- 3: Potash Could be on the Verge of a Breakout
- 4: PIMCO's Bill Gross December 2009 Letter - Risk of Bubbles Rises with Low Rates
- 5: What the Heck is Going on During Mondays Lately?
- 6: Marc Faber Video - As Long as Ben Bernanke is Fed Chief, Gold will be a Good Investment
- 7: Fund Performance Period 11
- 8: Tim Geithner Under Fire Videos
- 9: Time - 5 Things America Can Learn from China
Twitter Updates
Archives By Date
-
►
2009(1915)
-
►
11/22 - 11/29(9)
- NYT: Wave of Debt Payments Facing US Government
- Bookkeeping: Beginning Stake in Smart Grid Company...
- The Most Controversial Issue in the World this Wee...
- Bookkeeping: Selling Index Calls as S&P Approaches...
- LDK Solar (LDK) Kicks off Speculation Week with a ...
- Bookkeeping: Weekly Changes to Fund Positions Year...
- Doctor Devi Shetty, India's Henry Ford of Heart Su...
- Updated Position Sheet
- Natural Gas Down 12% on the Month; True Indicator ...
-
►
11/15 - 11/22(34)
- What the Heck is Going on During Mondays Lately? A...
- NYT: With FHA Help, Easy Loans in Expensive Areas;...
- Bookkeeping: Cutting Back Perfect World (PWRD) on ...
- "Houston, We Have a (Russell 2000) Problem"
- Tim Geithner Under Fire (Videos)
- PIMCO's Bill Gross December 2009 Letter : Risk of ...
- Bookkeeping: Beginning Starter Stake in Ctrip.com ...
- More Homes in the US in Delinquency or Foreclosure...
- Bookkeeping: Selling Index Longs as S&P Breaks 110...
- John Paulson Set to Launch Gold (GLD) Hedge Fund
- Infectious Greed: Detroit v Rest of US in Unemploy...
- Toll Brothers (TOL) CEO: “Yesterday’s Subprime is ...
- Bookkeeping: Stopped Out of E-House Holdings (EJ) ...
- S&P 1100 Current Pivot Point
- Best Performing Stocks of the Decade: 1900% to 790...
- Minyanville.: Our Economy is on Steroids
- Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold (FCX) Potential Bre...
- Marc Faber: As Long as Ben Bernanke is Fed Chief, ...
- Still All Good for the Bulls - Quiet Consolidation...
- USA Today: China Pushes Solar, Wind Development
- Potash (POT) Could be on the Verge of a Breakout
- George Soros Reveals Stake in Ford (F), Adds to Wa...
- Bookkeeping: Rebuilding E-House Holdings (EJ) Posi...
- Dennis Gartman: Gold (GLD) is in a "Bubble" - Mere...
- Bookkeping: Stopped Out of E-House Holdings (EJ) S...
- It's Raining Silver (SLV)! Alleluiah!
- Interview with Andrew Horowitz of The Disciplined ...
- Time: 5 Things America Can Learn from China
- Bookkeeping: Adding to CNinsure (CISG)
- New Highs for the S&P 500; Dollar Crushed - Ground...
- Perfect World (PWRD) Beats Solidly on Earnings, Of...
- Bookkeeping: Weekly Changes to Fund Positions Year...
- Deficit Doubles for Government's Pension Benefit G...
- Updated Position Sheet
- ► 11/08 - 11/15(38)
- ► 11/01 - 11/08(38)
- ► 10/25 - 11/01(48)
- ► 10/18 - 10/25(37)
- ► 10/11 - 10/18(40)
- ► 10/04 - 10/11(35)
- ► 09/27 - 10/04(41)
- ► 09/20 - 09/27(39)
- ► 09/13 - 09/20(35)
- ► 09/06 - 09/13(32)
- ► 08/30 - 09/06(32)
- ► 08/23 - 08/30(34)
- ► 08/16 - 08/23(36)
- ► 08/09 - 08/16(39)
- ► 08/02 - 08/09(40)
- ► 07/26 - 08/02(45)
- ► 07/19 - 07/26(45)
- ► 07/12 - 07/19(45)
- ► 07/05 - 07/12(40)
- ► 06/28 - 07/05(31)
- ► 06/21 - 06/28(37)
- ► 06/14 - 06/21(44)
- ► 06/07 - 06/14(42)
- ► 05/31 - 06/07(44)
- ► 05/24 - 05/31(39)
- ► 05/17 - 05/24(33)
- ► 05/10 - 05/17(39)
- ► 05/03 - 05/10(47)
- ► 04/26 - 05/03(45)
- ► 04/19 - 04/26(43)
- ► 04/12 - 04/19(40)
- ► 04/05 - 04/12(40)
- ► 03/29 - 04/05(40)
- ► 03/22 - 03/29(45)
- ► 03/15 - 03/22(45)
- ► 03/08 - 03/15(46)
- ► 03/01 - 03/08(49)
- ► 02/22 - 03/01(49)
- ► 02/15 - 02/22(45)
- ► 02/08 - 02/15(49)
- ► 02/01 - 02/08(49)
- ► 01/25 - 02/01(49)
- ► 01/18 - 01/25(38)
- ► 01/11 - 01/18(53)
- ► 01/04 - 01/11(52)
-
►
11/22 - 11/29(9)
-
►
2008(2199)
- ► 12/28 - 01/04(27)
- ► 12/21 - 12/28(25)
- ► 12/14 - 12/21(41)
- ► 12/07 - 12/14(39)
- ► 11/30 - 12/07(34)
- ► 11/23 - 11/30(31)
- ► 11/16 - 11/23(33)
- ► 11/09 - 11/16(33)
- ► 11/02 - 11/09(33)
- ► 10/26 - 11/02(43)
- ► 10/19 - 10/26(35)
- ► 10/12 - 10/19(34)
- ► 10/05 - 10/12(38)
- ► 09/28 - 10/05(40)
- ► 09/21 - 09/28(46)
- ► 09/14 - 09/21(52)
- ► 09/07 - 09/14(49)
- ► 08/31 - 09/07(36)
- ► 08/24 - 08/31(43)
- ► 08/17 - 08/24(48)
- ► 08/10 - 08/17(50)
- ► 08/03 - 08/10(46)
- ► 07/27 - 08/03(46)
- ► 07/20 - 07/27(49)
- ► 07/13 - 07/20(48)
- ► 07/06 - 07/13(52)
- ► 06/29 - 07/06(42)
- ► 06/22 - 06/29(47)
- ► 06/15 - 06/22(41)
- ► 06/08 - 06/15(39)
- ► 06/01 - 06/08(36)
- ► 05/25 - 06/01(30)
- ► 05/18 - 05/25(39)
- ► 05/11 - 05/18(40)
- ► 05/04 - 05/11(41)
- ► 04/27 - 05/04(48)
- ► 04/20 - 04/27(44)
- ► 04/13 - 04/20(48)
- ► 04/06 - 04/13(41)
- ► 03/30 - 04/06(54)
- ► 03/23 - 03/30(41)
- ► 03/16 - 03/23(47)
- ► 03/09 - 03/16(32)
- ► 03/02 - 03/09(44)
- ► 02/24 - 03/02(54)
- ► 02/17 - 02/24(40)
- ► 02/10 - 02/17(57)
- ► 02/03 - 02/10(57)
- ► 01/27 - 02/03(49)
- ► 01/20 - 01/27(48)
- ► 01/13 - 01/20(46)
- ► 01/06 - 01/13(43)
Fun / Info: Non Finance Blogs
4 comments:
Perhaps it was the energy legislation that Pres. Bush signed yesterday that is the catalyst behind today's move? Not that no one knew what was in this legislation beforehand but the local paper where I live made a huge deal out of how much of a push is going to continue to be made into ethanol (despite the idiocy of it as a fuel source)...
could be. As good of reason as any. :)
I'm glad my tax dollars are hard at work. Oh well at least we can make up for it on the other side through investments.
I recall in the past you highlighted the link between natural gas prices and COGS of the fertilizer manufacturers; the link below shows nat gas inventories 9% higher than historic averages and NWS also forcasted an usually warm Jan-Mar '08...they also forecasted a busy hurricane season but...
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngw/ngupdate.asp
Great call on CF by the way, ag is hot!
thanks Steve. CF and MOS have rotated as my top position for much of the past 2 months. In fact I feel naked by having only 6% fertilizer exposure at this moment - lowest in many months.
As for ng, both ng and coal have traditionally been looked as domestic energy sources - but coal has now picked up as an export. Due to difficulty in transport ng has not and probably will not. Hence a weakening US economy should keep a lid on ng. Just another feather in the cap of fertilizer plays. I can't tell you how many hits the website has had in past week or so on fertilizer (google search). If only they had listened in September ;)
Post a Comment