Monday, December 17, 2007

Bookkeeping: Doing Some Foreign Buying this Morning

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The foreign stocks are getting whacked this AM, so I am wading into some positions I had severely cut back such as the Indian stocks. Below are some names I am adding to today...
  1. Indian copper company Sterlite Industries (SLT) has dropped from $28 a few sessions ago to nearly its 50 day moving of $23.50.
  2. Indian bank ICICI Bank (IBN) has dropped from $66 range a few sessions ago to its 50 day moving average of $59.
  3. Indian bank HDFC Bank (HDB) has dropped from mid $140s range a few sessions ago to nearly its 50 day moving average of just under $124.
  4. The India Fund (IFN) has dropped from low $70s to low $60s in a few sessions so I am adding here (since its an index of many stocks, technical measures are not quite so applicable)
  5. Brazilian homebuilder Gafisa (GFA) has dropped from the $42s to nearly its 50 day moving average of the 50 day moving average of $35
  6. I am continuing to add to Russian steel/iron ore/coal play Mechel (MTL) on weakness post earnings; it is only around its 20 day moving average (upper 80s), so I am being patient and hoping for a fall to near $80 (50 day moving average) but adding in increments.
So you can see the same pattern in all names above except Mechel and the India Fund (IFN). As I stated last week, these were names I was interested in buying on a pullback, and with extreme volatility in these foreign names I am getting these pullbacks rather quickly. With that said, the 50 day moving average is but 1 support. If the markets weaken considerably the stocks will continue to falter. Hence most of these purchases are of the $5000-$7000 range variety. But my style is to layer in and out of positions, and here is the first layer I am adding. I am keeping a lot of powder dry in case of future breakdown. I had cut most of the Indian names down to very small positions (i.e. 0.3-0.4% in most cases) so I am just taking them now back to 1%+ type of positions with this first round of buying. I had wrote last Tuesday that the Indian stocks looked overheated, and that was some good timing. [China v India the past 2 Months]

At this point I think the move here in the Indian stocks are a bit overextended, and if not for the fact Chinese large caps are STILL extremely highly valued compared to similar peers in US, I'd be getting more constructive on China.

Long all names above in fund; long Sterlite Industries, Gafisa in personal account

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