Well oil did fall from $100 to the $80s, but I sure did not benefit from this by buying refining stocks so that thesis strangely failed. Also Tracinda promptly withdrew their bid sending Tesoro's shares into a freefall. Since I like Frontier Oil (FTO) far better as a company in the refining space than Tesoro, my impetus for buying the name was now gone. Luckily I sold half my Tesoro out @ $55 when Tracinda started whining about the poison pill provision Tesoro had added [Tracinda Says Tesoro Rights Plan Threatens Tender], so the damage was not too severe. I did not want to panic sell the rest as the stock imploded, and said I'd wait for a rebound to get out of the position. Well here is the rebound. The stock is now (on the chart) running into resistance as it's 20 day moving average is near $50 and its 50 day moving average is under $51, so this area looks as good as any to close out the position. If refining stocks get market favor, than Tesoro will not adhere to the chart and continue to run but if that is the case I will just pile into Frontier Oil as my refining play.
So here is a trade that did not work out too well, but luckily I cut it back sharply so the damage was not too severe, and instead of just dumping it, by waiting a week or two, I was able to wait for some event to drive the stock up, and get out at a reasonable price. Can't win them all, but can always try to limit damages from the ones that do not work. I still took about a 8% loss in this position, but selling near $50 for the 2nd half of the position saved some money versus panicking and selling in the mid $40s.
Long Frontier Oil in fund; no personal position
