Wednesday, November 21, 2007

What a Thanksgiving Week Rally! Some transactions

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If this is a holiday rally, please don't show me a holiday sell off

I sold down some of my ultrashort hedges and added to positions this morning
  1. 2 Indian stocks: ICICI Bank (HDB) down 7%, and Sterlite Industries (SLT) down 9% - both these positions I had cut quite severely in my "layer in, layer out" philosophy so now I am getting a chance to buy them and re-up the positions. Sterlite fell to its 50 day moving average around $21.40, and ICICI Bank did the same, falling to $56.50 or so. The risk in such a strategy is always the same; the stocks break support and continue downward, but I sold large parts of these positions much higher.
  2. I re-initiated a starter position in LDK Solar (LDK) off the bad Trina Solar (TSL) result (more on Trina in a separate entry). LDK Solar has its own issues but in early December should be reporting its audit results and "bad news is better than uncertainty" so I am restarting a small position here with the stock down 9% in sympathy with Trina Solar. It is near $30 which has been the floor of late. I sold the last of my LDK Solar 25% higher from here 2 weeks ago around $40, so this is a nice discount from where I exited the name. With the article I cited yesterday about all the new competition coming online in the solar space, I am now more bullish on arms merchants such as JA Solar (JASO) and LDK Solar (LDK). My LDK Solar position is just a beginning position of 0.8% ($9100) of the fund; I wanted to spread my buys around today to a lot of names, and am low on cash.
  3. I am adding to Suntech Power (STP) and First Solar (FSLR) - and keeping in my theme of sticking with leaders for the most part in solar.
  4. I bought more of fertilizer play CF Industries (CF) - the stock has fallen repeatedly to upper $70s on repeated selloffs and this seems to mark the bottom unless the market implodes (further)
As I wrote with the solar names, most of the quality companies reported in the front end of the earnings season and in the back half are the companies who are struggling so that could weigh on sentiment. I am personally hoping Suntech Power and First Solar get sold off even more but thus far only down 2-3%.

Long all names above in fund; long Suntech Power and Sterlite Industries in personal account


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