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Thursday, November 8, 2007

Some Late Day Buying

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Well if you were away all day and only looked at the close it looks like a benign day. Sheesh.

I did let go of some of my short ETFs here as the market firmed up, as I saw some stuff I wanted to buy. I split my buys among the worst performers and the best that I am interested in.

Worst
  1. Crocs (CROX) - truly I would be happy to buy this stock around $55. This could be one of the greatest overreactions I have seen in many years; I can only assume this is one of those stocks retail held in large numbers (on margin?) and maybe a lot of momentum hedge funds. This level of weakness makes little sense. But the blowups in other retailers like Zumiez (ZUMZ), and then a stock I just noted the other day had a similar story to Crocs, Hansen Natural (HANS) which also blew up today is not helping. Hansen in fact had a similar story - great growth but not good enough for the crazy short term expectations of the street. Through my layering in, I believe Crocs is now going to be the #1 long position by end of day.
  2. VMWare (VMW) - this is my 2nd layer of the stock, that I started earlier today. I'd still like to get it cheaper if it falls...
Best
  1. Shaw Group (SGR) - infrastructure play that held 20 day moving average all day
  2. Jacobs Engineer group (JEC) - see Shaw Group
  3. Frontier Oil (FTO) - never went red; if oil dips to $80s this refiner takes off to mid $50s in a blink of an eye
  4. National Oilwell Varco (NOV) - keeps pulling back like a magnet to its 50 day moving average, then bouncing
Another amazing day, and other than the NASDAQ we are essentially right where we started the day - still in bad shape technically - we need to rebound and get above that 1490 on the S&P500. With that said, a lot of individual names took serious damage today, so the indexes do NOT tell the story of the carnage under the surface. Those that did get hit, got hit very hard today. This volatility is getting a bit old....

Long all names above in fund; long Crocs in personal account

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