Thursday, November 15, 2007

The "Rally" Fizzles - Back to S&P 1450

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In yesterday's piece where I noted all the positions I was either selling or cutting back on to raise cash [Raising Cash], I mentioned sell when you can, not when you have to. Amazingly, most of those names are already down 6-10% from where i sold them. For traders this is a fun environment, but trying to be a 'long mostly' fund, not so much. I did some small nibbling here as Potash (POT) and Mosaic (MOS) are back to where they were Monday when I was buying into the teeth of the selloff. Could it be so easy that we just get another spike so I can keep repeating this process?

I doubt it. As I stated Monday, if we break this 1440s/1450 level, next step is down to near 1400. This time while I am doing some light buying, I am not letting go of any of the Ultrashort ETFs. This market just seems so much more weaker then the indexes appear to tell - we could be heading for the next leg lower - getting my shopping list out (hey next Friday is the biggest shopping day of the year!) Suffice to say this is not a chart you'd bring home to meet mom. Get seatbelts ready.... could be a rocky ride coming. And yes, I hope I am wrong on this call.


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