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Thursday, November 8, 2007

Needed to see the Teflon Stocks feel Pain

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The pain in the Teflon stocks is a necessary step to bottom

VMWare down 13%
Baidu down 11% (44 pts) - whew. Down 12% from where I sold it
Google down 7% (50 pts)
Research in Motion which had been the most impervious down 11%
Apple down 9%

Unfortunately some of the fund holdings are seeing serious carnage as well - Riverbed Technology and Crocs totally imploding.

I was saying I needed to see these teflon stocks fall before I can get comfortable. This is a good first step. Unfortunately a new set of teflon stocks has been created, the solar stocks. Only a few are red thus far. Hence I would still like to see some carnage there (ex-FSLR). Yingli Green Energy (YGE) reported today and while a solid quarter with 23% gross margins, they have (as predicted) a much larger share count due to being a public company this entire quarter (their share count was much lower last quarter since there is a strange rule that you only need to pro-rate your share count by how many days in a quarter you are public) So despite great "earnings", the "earnings per share" were spread over a lot of shares. And EPS came in at $.18. Impressive, but for a nearly $40 stock? Hmmm....

So let's see if we see a turn down in the solar stocks - they are the last impervious group. Longs are still in "buy the dip" mode, it will recover tomorrow. Need to get more of a feeling of "Uncle!". When I do see that (if I do), I will flip out the 10% or so I now have in UltraShorts and start putting it on the long side. Until then I am sitting on my hands. Some of these teflon stocks are starting to get interesting.... but not yet.

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