More Mortgage Woes to Come
- Evoking Depression-era memories, Wells Fargo & Co. President John Stumpf on Thursday became the latest banker to predict continuing difficulties in the U.S. housing market as risky mortgages made to overextended borrowers disintegrate into large loan losses.
- Stumpf said the current real estate conditions are the worst he has experienced during his 30-year career. He then punctuated his gloomy assessment by harking back to the deepest downturn of the 20th century.
- "We have not seen a nationwide decline in housing like this since the Great Depression," he said.
- San Francisco-based Wells Fargo, the fifth largest U.S. bank, so far has fared far better than virtually all of its peers. (read: credibility)
- That's because Wells Fargo sold most of the $2 trillion in home loans that it has originated since 2001 and invested relatively little money in the mortgage-backed securities that have been saddling other big banks with huge losses. In contrast, Wells Fargo ended September with $581 million in unrealized investment gains on its books.
- Stumpf said he didn't even know about some of the exotic mortgage investments that enticed other banks until he read about them in the newspaper. (read: credibility)
- "It's interesting that the industry has invented new ways to lose money when the old ways seemed to work just fine," Stumpf said.
- He blamed much of the real estate turmoil on low interest rates, unscrupulous lending practices and outright greed as housing prices steadily climbed until 2006.
- "The losses have turned out to be greater than expected because home prices have declined faster and deeper than expected," said Stumpf. He cited the Midwest's "auto-belt" states and California's Central Valley - a swath stretching from Sacramento to Bakersfield - as Wells Fargo's biggest headaches.
- Stumpf indicated 2008 will be even more challenging, particularly if home prices continue to erode while more adjustable-rate mortgages reset to higher payments. The result is that some families can't pay - or stop paying - their mortgages.
- "I don't think we're in the ninth inning of unwinding this," Stumpf said. "If we are, it's an extra-inning game."
Long truth and reality; short affordability of homes in the US
2 comments:
Greetings Mark, here is an interesting article. Would like your take on it.
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Chinese Ministry Warns Of Economic Impact Of US Slowdown - FTLast update: 11/15/2007 5:17:30 PMDOW JONES NEWSWIRES China's commerce ministry warned on Thursday that a slowing U.S. economy would trigger a drop in Chinese exports that would mark a "turning point" for China's rapid economic growth, the Financial Times reported on its Web site. A global economic slowdown stemming from problems in the U.S. subprime mortgage market and the resulting credit squeeze "will be the biggest challenge to China's economy next year," a report from the ministry's policy research department said, according to the FT. The report, said the FT, is Beijing's first public comment on what repercussions it expects from the global credit crisis and a sign that the government doesn't support the view that Asian growth has "decoupled" from the U.S. "If demand in the U.S. drops further, Chinese exporters will be devastated by a rapid and continuous fall in orders," the report said. According to the FT, the ministry's report was pessimistic about the chances of avoiding a U.S, and global slowdown, pointing out that although central banks in the U.S., Europe and Japan had taken numerous steps to alleviate the credit crisis, the situation had continued to deteriorate and "panic in the credit market remains." The ministry said a combination of falling U.S. interest rates and rising Chinese rates was limiting Beijing's ability to rein in soaring property and stock market prices and inflation was running at its highest level in a decade. It also noted that continued turmoil in global financial markets could encourage greater capital inflows to China, straining the country's financial and regulatory system and increasing inflationary pressure, the FT reported. Newspaper Web site: http://www.ft.com (END) Dow Jones NewswiresNovember 15, 2007 17:17 ET (22:17 GMT)
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Cheers,
AJ
Well I have been trying to explain that to people - the US is 25% of world GDP. When it catches a cold the rest of the world won't be impervious. I also believe western europe is on the same path as the USA. Now, the emerging markets are in far better shape than in the past and their growing middle class will help offset (internal growth) weakness abroad, but 12% GDP drops to 5-7% GDP is very likely. Also specific to China I have written many articles about issues specific to them, energy issues (they are subsidizing energy costs which is costing an arm and a leg), food inflation, the stock market is a joke, and if you think there is not greed and malfeasance running through the system just like here in a rush to make riches off the stock market, think again. I am sure there is a lot of stuff going on the past 2 years so people can try to get rich quick, which will come to light down the road. Remember about 50% of profits of many Chinese companies is simply investing in STOCKS of other companies (ponzi scheme) ... so what happens when stocks go down - those profits disappear - that is not part of their business, its simply speculation. So there are a lot of issues - its just a matter of when it matters. Just like all the things hurting the market of late - they were all spoken about from day 1 of this blog but it did not matter because of the love of the Fed and thinking they can solve everything. Eventually things come home to roost! Sometimes it takes years
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