Friday, November 2, 2007

Looks like Under Armour (UA) is Finally Facing Reality

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I mentioned Tuesday I was very surprised to see this stock rally in the face of a massive increase in inventory, and mixed guidance. Usually stocks with such valuations falter at the slightest hint of slowing momentum (see Crocs!), but Under Armour (UA). I wrote

I am a bit surprised at the strength in Under Armour (UA) this morning off a nice earnings report but mixed guidance. Generally a high valued stock would sell off on this sort of news but thus far it has held up - the stock is right at the 50 day moving average of $60 in fact. It looks like the stock was down 7% in premarket but then bounced to actually be up for the day. Honestly, if I could, if the stock started faltering here, I'd consider it a great short for the near term.

Now of course the market itself is not helping but the stock is now around $55. Again I am not a hedge fund so I can't short, I'm just a fake mutual fund but this was one I would of liked to short off the strange reaction. This is a major advantage of hedge funds; being able to play both sides of the tape more effectively than what mutual funds do, which is 99.9% long only. Hence you can make nice money to buffer your long positions on down days (or down moves).

The 200 day moving average for Under Armour is down @ $53.50 and I would not be surprised to see a drop to that level. From the $60 level I pointed out this would be a good short from (it actually rose to $62-$63 range), $55 is a nice quick 8.3% drop, and is we get to $53.50 that would be a nice 10.3% drop. Unfortunately, I cannot short in this fund...

No position


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