Friday, November 30, 2007

In a Complete and Utter Shock the Market Rallies on Fed Ready to Cut Rates

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What a shocker. In speech last night, Uncle Ben signals / hints more interest rate cuts are coming down the pike. After jawboning about inflation risks and weak dollar risks. Who would ever of guessed such a thing? (well I was about 2:31 PM on October 31st) So let's party again, because obviously the last two cuts have really fixed the problem. But not to worry, don't ask "why" the Fed is being forced to cut - all the bad news in the macro environment and major instability in credit markets - the reason why does not matter - just the actual crack delivered to the drug addict is all that matters. Didn't we just play this game? Is this simply the same game we are going to play every 6 weeks? Every time we get the "all clear" signal that the drug dealer is ready to deliver we party? Despite the reasons?

Let me give you a preview of Dec 11th - we stand neutral blah blah blah. 6 weeks later, another cut. After the late January meeting let me tell you what will be said - we stand neutral blah blah. 6 weeks later, another cut. And so on and so forth.

Really, Uncle Ben is no different from Uncle Al. Maybe if we can pull rates down to 1% again, we can get that stock market up to 16,000! Yeh! Awesome dude!

Up, up we go - don't ask why the Fed is forced to cut when in theory it doesn't want to - just enjoy the fact that Fed cuts = great times and all ills washed away. Until they don't. Which is usually 3 weeks later when reality hits. It is amazing how simplistic the thinking is. Talk about Groundhog Day. I guess I am always just 'shocked' when things that are plainly obvious are "news" to the investing public. The 'experts'. Unfortunately to be a good stock investor nowadays you need to be more aware of when Ben has speeches, rather than fundamentals of stocks.

2 comments:

fortune8 said...

The same way we are forced to do things in our job when we know it is wrong and we even have data to get it wrong. Not the long term solution. Just a quick fix, put a band-aid on it and let's move on. We'll revisit later.

TraderMark said...

I just am unclear on how putting a band aid on a severed limb does anything? What patient would be fooled into thinking this is a solution?

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