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Thursday, November 1, 2007

Exisiting Positions I am Adding To

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As I mentioned Wednesday, I took cash up to 20% ahead of the Fed meeting (Back to 20% Cash! I'm Antsy), and short ETFs about 10%. Aside from now wanting to be whacked if the Fed did not please the market gods who it seems beholden too (which is a bad way to run your business), it was once again very tough to find values. I look at these solar stocks (which are still holding up well) and value is nowhere to be found.

While I am not in a hurry to apply cash, I did start some buying on things getting individually whacked. When I start to see the solar stocks or agriculture stocks which the market is in love with right now get whacked I will be more interested in applying more cash. Usually days like this don't end well, and with a bipolar market and an employment report tomorrow I doubt we would see a major dip buying session by investors this afternoon.

Here are some positions I added to today
  • General Cable (BGC) down 11% on Q4 Outlook. While the near term for this stock could be a bit rocky since it does have a lot of US exposure, it is slowly becoming a back door infrastructure play and with its purchase of Phelps Dodge International we are getting closer to that day. I like this stock about 2-3 quarters out. Since the chart is trashed with today's move there is no hurry so I added to the 1.0% position I had.
  • Crocs (CROX) down 30% on 2007 outlook and loss of love from Cramer. Well as Cramer does, once a momentum stock disappoints him, its no longer worthy. I was targeting $54-$55 for a nice entry and I got even better down here in the $52-$53 range. So I added to my sub 0.90% position. Worst case it looks like $45 could be the floor, so risk reward here rather than in the low $70s is fine with me. A lot of momentum chasers need to be washed out - momentum is a 2 edged sword - you don't need to know anything about fundamentals on the way up (like all the johnny come lately solar investors buying Sunpower and First Solar for 5 bazillion times earnings - even Cramer called them overvalued last night) but when a stock disappoints, it kills you because half the people you are investing with have zero conviction - their whole basis was "it went up yesterday, it must go up tomorrow"
  • Aluminum Corp of China (ACH) down to its 50 day moving average of $68. This is not my favorite name in China, but I have limited exposure to China and the stock fell to a major support level so I added to my small position. This was also a sub 1.o% position and the stock has been in a downtrend for 2 weeks, so this could be signaling something bigger. I didn't add a ton.
  • KBR (KBR) - Down about 7% - I missed the lows of the days in the $37s, $38s - but added a bit more. The concern is chemicals business was not as great as people had hoped. All I see is another 25% added to backlog. More visibility, more strength and the government of the US and A in the back pocket. Good enough for me.
  • Consol Energy (CNX) - coal play, it dropped 5% and my coal exposure is too low after I sold off this name at higher prices lately. I want more coal.
  • Garmin (GRMN) - down about 5%, I added to the position I restarted yesterday as the stock skims $100.
Again, not major moves - incremental buys here and there ($4k-$5k) aside from Crocs where I bought $10K

Long all names in fund; long Crocs and KBR in personal account

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