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Tuesday, November 6, 2007

Earnings on Tap Tomorrow - Infrastructure Day

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Busy day for fund holdings tomorrow

Ctrip.com (CTRP) - Chinese travel
Fluor Corp (FLR) - infrastructure
Foster Wheeler (FWLT) - infrastructure
Frontier Oil (FTO) - refiner
McDermott (MDR) - infrastructure

So 3 of the infrastructure holdings report tomorrow - McDermott seems best positioned technically in the short run. I did lighten up on Foster Wheeler due to weakness in the stock today. I have a smallish Fluor position only due to valuation versus peers. While lemmings will be focused on earnings or this quarter or that quarter metric, I will be looking at those backlogs. Any near term hiccups will provide opportunities to get in at lower prices.

Ctrip.com has some valuation risk - chart looks great, in the right sector of course but pricey. Frontier Oil probably will be fine as we know the story, terrible quarter, not great prospects next quarter but if crude falls, the margins rise.

Other major companies of interest:
Cisco (CSCO) - CEO Chambers has already said this is the best global environment he has ever seen and Cisco is still predominantly a US based company so it could have a lot of growth in international markets, sort of 1997-2000 redux. Even sad sack Nortel (NT) had decent earnings and is rallying. Cisco is 10x the company Nortel is. Cisco reports after the bell tomorrow so we might get a rally off this Thursday as its still a bellweather, at least in NASDAQ. I did not have enough cash to buy on dips of late, so instead have just been rebuilding a smaller Ciena (CIEN) position as a parallel play - Juniper Networks (JNPR) is the most direct comparable but not currently in the portfolio.

General Motors (GM)/Toyota (TM) - some vision on the US consumer. While not much expected from GM, Toyota has been signaling a weaker US consumer so let's see what they guide.

URS (URS) - this is another infrastructure stock but not one I have been as high on. If they report some sort of standout growth and higher than expected backlog I could warm to it.

Western Refining (WNR) - a former fund holding, but I've switched to a focus on Tesoro and Frontier Oil.

Polo Ralph Lauren (RL) - another 'high end' aspirational retailer which has been pole axed. I am surprised they are not doing better internationally to buffer their US exposure. Unlike Coach (COH) which is tied mostly to US/Japan at this time, RL has a lot more international exposure. So far it hasn't helped its stock.

Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE) - one of the many dry bulk shippers

Banco Itau (ITU) - the other major Brazilian bank available to US investors; BBD reported today.

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