As we close out the earnings season we have some interesting reports coming down the pike
Tomorrow, long suffering Blue Coat Systems (BCSI) reports before the market opens. Blue Coat has been battered by over the top expectations in Riverbed Technology (RVBD) and Cisco (CSCO) indicating there are slowdowns in the enterprise spending in sectors such as financial. All the time Blue Coat Systems has not said one negative thing but its stock has lost nearly 40% of its value just by association. The stock has stabilized with $32 as a floor; I expect good results but guidance is key. Any whisper of slowdown due to US economy blah blah will make scared investors flee. An over reaction but its hard to argue with emotional people. I still like Blue Coat and at these levels Riverbed Technology is also finally a good value for its growth rate. These names should be reaching 'washed out' levels.
Also tomorrow are 2 favored retailers, Gamespot (GME) on the video game side and Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS). Considering they are retailers, both stocks have held up reasonably well. I think Gamespot is the safer stock as video games seem to be in a "no way to it slow it down" niche, whereas I could see some slowdown in sporting goods, along with the economy.
Target (TGT), Whole Foods (WFMI), and Office Depot (ODP) also report tomorrow - can't expect much good from these, but if the stocks bounce we might finally have a near term bottom. Nordstrom (JWN) reported "ok" numbers and "ok" guidance tonight and is up 10% afterhours; so it doesn't take much. Again, I think the consumer has weakened, and will continue to weaken but these stocks have gone from pricing no ill effect to the consumer a few quarters ago to "the end of days is near" scenario. We will still spend this Christmas... just not quite at heady rates of the past.
A couple of interesting smaller Chinese stocks also report tomorrow - will be interested to see how they do and more importantly if the market is ready to buy back the smaller Chinese fare that it's been regurgitating out at an alarming rate - Focus Media (FMCN), China Medical (CMED), and Home Inns and Hotel (HMIN) [Edit: FMCN reported tonight in fact]
Oh yeh, homebuilder DR Horton (DHI) also reports tomorrow. Prediction? hah - too easy.
Wednesday all that looks interesting is Trina Solar (TSL) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) on the speciality retailer side. ANF actually has held up well; as long as $140 jeans and $45 shirts are cool this stock continues to do well.... year after year.
Monday, November 19, 2007
Earnings on Tap pre Thanksgiving
Posted by
Mark
at
6:21 PM
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2 comments:
Hi Mark
Just a note; it seems as though you have listed American Century Vista, twice on your favorite mutual funds list.
Do you like any other mutual funds? How about FAIRX or OAXBX? Do you like any balanced or contrarian funds?
Thanks
One should be Vista and one should be Heritage
What I list there are funds that have similar concentrated strategies and similar "type" of stocks. Sometimes I will look through to see what theya re buying that I nave never heard of to see if it generates new ideas.
If I were buying mutual funds to balance against my type of stock preferences I'd go with a deep value type of fund, i.e. provide balance to my overall strategy. The list you see is essentially guys who do things very similar to me, with similar type of growth stocks. Of course if this type of investing falls out of favor i.e. in 2002, you'd prefer to have more of a Buffet type of holdings. For example in a 401k plan, etc I mix and match more so I have more bases covered and or for older people closer to retirement have more conservative fare.
Funny you mention fairx - I just got my dad into that fund. If I had say 70% of my net worth into my own "real fund" to balance my strategies and aggressive bent I'd put the other 30% into strategies that were very different than mine. What I do hate to see is how 70% of mutual funds are simply LARGE CAP S&P 500 index funds but sell themselves as "actively managed" - I see so many funds with 300 stocks, all large cap, and basically all have the exact same names, Exxon, Citibank, Microsoft, JPMorgan, GE, etc. I swear there are so many "me too" funds out there and if you own one, you own them all! Oakmark is a good family but has struggled of late... in the long run they have done awesome though.
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