- Adding to McDermott (MDR) - Foster Wheeler showed us great numbers, I expect good from McDermott
- Adding to National Oilwell Varco (NOV) - this is an undervalued (in my book) oil services stock that broke out yesterday and popped to close to $80 today - I am adding on this pullback to mid $70s as I feel I don't have enough
- Adding to CNH Global (CNH) - this is my 1 non fertilizer agriculture play - very undervalued compared to Agco (AG) which is ramping hard. I think it is overlooked.
- I am beginning a new position in Nordstrom (JWN) - yes you heard me. Retailers have been trashed and the stocks are holding up well today. Nordstrom is a quality brand, and while aspirational is better positioned in terms of customer than Kohls or JC Penney. The stock is now trading at 10x earnings. I bought 700 shares in the $33s, a $23.6K position or 2% of the fund. This might be a shorter term hold than is typical but these stocks appeared to be washed out. Granted buying ahead of monthly same store sales is a risk, but there needs to be some bounce at some point. Certainly not a favored sector but at times the market overdoes it. I believe this is one of those opportunities.
I did sell some of my UltraShort Russell 2000 (TWM) and UltraShort Financials (SKF) into the thick of this selling. So far 1490 has held, and the teflon stocks have not fallen on their sword. So far.
EDIT @ 2:20 PM: I sold 170 shares of Foster Wheeler yesterday at $137 worried about the stock technically; it fell to lower $130s later that day. Today it rose to $149 before pulling back to $143s; I am going to take this opportunity to say thank you to the market, and I am buying back the 170 shares (+30 more) for 200 new shares of FWLT in $143s. I had to pay 4% more for the shares I let go, but thats not much of a premium for safety. If one company defines the exposure to both global energy needs and global infrastructure buildout, this is one - their customers are the newly rich, whether oil is $70 or $100. I am happy to make it (and keep it) a top 5 position now that earnings are out of the way.
Foster Wheeler is a 4.25% position once again. Welcome back...
Long all names above in fund.
3 comments:
Mark,
Thanks for your commment. I am looking at FXY and it shot up like crazy.. I loaded my boat today and keeping hopes that FXY drops tommorow and market bounces off of its support. If this support fails, we have some ways to go south before we even think of north. Comments on the correlation of FXY and the market direction?
Well first I am not a currency expert, but I believe what Ben is doing to our dollar is a shame. I dont follow the yen much; Japan is an old slow economy - I am favoring commodity based economies such as FXC or FXA. Or even Swiss if you just want to bet on dollar weakness. My thoughts on dollar, gold, oil, silver is these are crowded trades - they have a long way to go, but they need some correction first.
I was looking at a silver stock I considered at 14, its not 17, SLW. DOH. Everyone is on this side of the trade and with so much liquidity floaing in the market who knows how long it continues. I am interested in these areas but I'd like to see a counter trend first. Oil to me is most vulnerable short term. I think probably $20 is just pure liquidity and Ben inflating, and those assets need to go somewhere. Oil probably belongs below $80. But with all these dollars it needs a home and petro is liquid. So until it breaks its hard to go against it. That said, I believe in all these long term - they just need breaks. 1490 has been amazing as support, this is the 5th time - each time it happens though I get more worried. Eventually it should break. Until then you play the odds, that it won't and keep trying to build gains because eventually the trade will go against you, and when 1490 breaks and they toss our Baidu, Google, Apple etc it will get ugly. But I am not in those areas - I am in fertilizer, infrastructure and others - not that they will not be hit, but they have more fundamentals behind them than say solar or things of that nature that speculators are running too. Chinese stocks have also stunk this week. SO speculators are being hurt there (which is good) I just feel retailers, and even financials are overdone - need some short term respite and then we can continue to see them move down.
Thanks for the great response. I don't follow currency either but the japanese yen (carry trade) really correlates very well with the market direction and I think its a chicken-egg situation - what influences what is unknown.
As I write, finaly the 1490 Broke down! Tommrows Oct. sales and tonights CSCO report will set the direction tommmorow I guess. ASIA for sure will be bloody tonight.
:(.
Cheers..
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