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Thursday, November 8, 2007

Bookkeeping: Starting Small Position in VMWare (VMW)

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Don't ask about the valuation, but much like First Solar, VMWare (VMW) has rare type of earnings growth.

With the stock down 25% in 5 sessions ($124 to $94), and touching the 50 day moving average ($94) I started an initial stake here of 75 shares (just over $7K). I don't want to get too much in case the market falters further and my cash hoard is low to begin with, so it's a beginning position. Much like with my Baidu.com purchases I just have to look away when I go to the earnings estimates and think "cheap on 2010, cheap on 2010"....

As an aside, I did some trimming in the top 2 positions today to raise some much needed cash - Foster Wheeler (FWLT) up 7% today and CF Industries (CF) as it nears $100. Foster Wheeler is up 10% from where I bought it yesterday afternoon so taking some of this in, is prudent. Both remain roughly 4% positions. The strategy here, is if the market does cascade down, and new opportunities (i.e. lower prices) are created in other names I don't want to be forced to sell these names when they are down... the short term market is very difficult to read right now - we have had some very heavy down days, and appear oversold near term, but technically we are damaged and the teflon 'leaders' are showing the first signs of weakness in a long time. Could be temporary, or beginning of a trend. Impossible to tell. Hence, remaining cautious.

Long VMWare in fund; no personal position


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