One day we will all look back at this and share a great laugh ... ;)
In the last 10 minutes I decided to sell some of the stronger positions since I wanted to raise some cash. I was debating whether to do that Friday and did not - of course those strong positions were decimated today. I did not get all the buy orders in time.
I closed 2 positions
Blackrock (BLK) this was a sub 1% position. I really like this financial but with some of the other stocks down so severely the near term upside in those positions over the next few months is now greater in those names than Blackrock.
iShares Hong Hong Kong (EWH), this was roughly a 1% position - if China panics all the Asian related ETFs I hold (Malaysia, Singapore) will fall, but Hong Kong probably most. The ETF was only down 1% today so I just needed to raise some cash.
I reduced
Ciena (CIEN) which has been a relative strength champ and held up today as well, near flat - I just needed to raise cash so I sold 200 of 550 shares; it is still a 1.5% position - same theory as Blackrock, with the panic selling in other sectors I just see more upside now in other names in the near term.
I tried to buy the following 4: Potash (POT), Shaw Group (SGR), CF Industries (CF), and Baidu.com (BIDU)
Only Potash triggered in time - of the 3 fertilizer stocks I own, I as most underweight in this name, since its valuation was the highest. It held better than the other 2 all day but fell on its sword there in the last hour or so. I picked up some at $103s; and its now up to 2.9% of the portfolio. As I said, I want to be overweight agriculture and infrastructure going into 2008 and I sure am now.
Baidu.com is still a small position for me, but I wanted to double from 30 shares to 60 shares, as the stock is now down suddenly to its 50 day moving average. That order did not go in time, and neither did the other two stocks I was looking to buy. So I will have a bit of cash if we open with more carnage tomorrow.
Solar stocks imploded even worse than agriculture and infrastructure today - still not that interested....
As always, keep days like this in mind when everything is easy and everyone is printing money hand over fist. Keeps us grounded. Suffice to say the fund seriously underperformed the indexes today as all overweight groups were smashed to pieces. Amazingly outside of NASDAQ the indexes were not really down much today. Unless we are going back to 2002 type of environment there should be some light at the end of the tunnel here relatively soon as all hot sectors have now been humbled. To say sentiment is awful would be an understatement.
How was your day? :)
Monday, November 12, 2007
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7 comments:
you have balls of steal man...to be buying into this tape (then again, you're only working with play money). but i do think youre right in that we will all be laughing in a few months about this. today was the first day the last pockets of strength were taken to the cleaners which is a good sign. we are nearing the end of this slaughter, but then again, the last moments of panic-selling just before the turn can bring some unbelievably low prices. im holding out for that those :).
Yep its not fun to buy and then see stuff fall another 5% by the next morning. That said, I have been booking some profits along the way upward in most names I am buying back now at much lower prices. And yes they can go lower but as long as I get the middle of the move I will be ok. And yes its fake but I am just replicating what I will do with real money, so fair warning! hah.
I do remember some of those prices on the afternoon of Aug 16th and looking back they are unbelievable. But if you bought in the week ahead or week after that low point you still did great in the coming months. Check out a chart of Foster Wheeler or McDermott to see what I mean; those were 2 of my top 3 positions in August in the carnage, and they turned out well (over time). For the next 2 days, or 2 weeks, its anyone's guess.
As long as I have a few fingers left after catching these knives I can still make a fist... or something. :)
Have you seen how the China UltraShort FXP did today? Nearly +14%
Yes no surprise - I wish they had come out with it about a week earlier. I wrote about those Ultrashorts 2 weeks ago I think. The Chinese one is just pure gambling - its scary. If anything I'd use EEV which is ultrashort the emerging markets index... it was still up 10% today or so.
Plus I thought it was anti American to bet against CHina?? :)
At this point in the move down it begins to get scary to be a short because everything is so oversold. It can turn against you very quickly. Sort of like buying the solars last week or big cap tech the week before, you begin to press your bets. And it can hurt you badly once trend reverses.
Where have you been hiding your cash? Unfortunately all the safe ports for me, were raided today.
Mostly cash, though I had a sizeable portion in MDR up until today's downgrade... Not sure what to do in this current market, so I'm looking for bargains.
I am very amused by JASO's 5-day chart (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=JASO&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=). A large, single-day gap up and then back to normal as if nothing had happened. (Of course, followed by a steep fall the past couple of days).
Mark, good to read all of your posts in the evening after an exhaustive day at work.. I was out for training and missed all the oppys today while I was in full cash since the past couple of sessions.. I however did buy goog puts on friday and had automatic orders to sell those today which got executed today.. pleased to see the trade work out and raise my cash a tad more :).. I am staying out of this crazy market until we get some bounce and I will mostly short that bounce.. Thursday is teh final day for the banks to declare, correct? .. Retail showed some interesting stability.. time to get in? .. cheers.. have a good night!!
hi msb, any word on what the worry was over on MDR. I did write about the 'miss' on revenues but long term I still like it; just curious what the analysts are hand wringing about now. I see today it got an upgrade - funny. JASO has a crazt chart - not my favorite name in the space and until the small fry who have disappointed in the past report - I don't want to be long much in that sector so we'll check back in a few weeks.
AJ thats the benefit of being a trader you can be totally out or in cash. Even Cramer sounded scared last night :) So maybe that is a contrary indicator near term. To me the trend is down until it changes. All bounces are to be sold or shorted into - once the trend is changed than you change your opinion. AMazing 9 sessions ago we were talking about another 1.2% move up and we'd be at all time highs and I was thinking I'd need to dump by short hedges since that would be a bullish sign. Not even 2 weeks ago. Enormous volatility in this market. They say 70% of trading is now done by computers and it sure looks like it, with how cascading the sells down are, and how strong the moves up can be.
Yes Thursday is the day for the FASB rule to take effect but I have a hard time seeing that s a new surprise since everyone is already talking about it; so I think most of it is already priced in. For very nimble traders I've been saying since late last week financials/retailers seem to be the short term play. Obviously I can't do that here.
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