My Yahoo trade was not
Unlike most of my portfolio the Yahoo (YHOO) play was a short term catalyst type of trade - the catalyst did not provide the type of pop I expected and/or I was too late to this trade. So win/lose/or draw I need to be out. As they say, don't make a trade into an investment.
I'd rather be in a Google or Baidu (I am in neither at this time) than Yahoo in terms of operations. Hence I don't want to own it. While I had a nice gain immediately after this trade started, I now have a 5% loss or about $1200. Not a big deal for this size of portfolio; I'd rather have the cash back and find companies I believe in, especially if we get some bargain prices.
If the market were more to my liking, I'd wait for a bit of a bounce in Yahoo as its been terribly weak the past few days, to get out - but due to market overall I am just cashing out now and taking my chips home... I need to stick to my knitting :) these short term catalyst moves are not working out too well.
I took this cash and bought more UltraShort Russell 2000 (TWM); which is now the fund's biggest position
Long UltraShort Russell 2000
5 comments:
Wow... pretty bloody today.. I am in cash with some losses that I took earlier this morning.. Whats your view Mark now after the Bernanke hearing? My bullish thesis is kind of on shaky grounds for now until its proven wrong but I hated to see the concern on Dr. BB's face.
Cheers..
The economy is in bad shape
consumer confidence low
wealth effect disappearing with housing
financials still have more kitchen sinks to disclose
crude is inflationary and the Fed finally confesses to it
Australia raised rates due to inflation
Europe won't cut rates due to inflation
only we cut rates because our financial system is a joke and we need to bailout
hence our dollar getting destroyed
other than that, everything is fine
seriously, how much of this is priced in is the question
Cisco's words really hurt more than numbers - they admitted they are seeing some slowdown due to economy
before this the 'safe haven' was tech. because it was immume to the economy (I dont know how people believe this)
but that was the thinking
I still say agriculture and infrastructure is more immune
honestly nothing has changed from 4 weeks ago or 8 weeks ago
only realization by people of the problems we've been talking about since day 1.
With that said no matter what I am sure people will be buying iPhones and iPods and doing searches on Google no matter what
but financials, and housing are basically a joke - financials still not honest about their exposure. If they were honest we could go through a quicker correction. Now it will be chinese water torture over quarters when they let more and more out slowly. But business will not be returning to 2003-2006 anytime soon, if ever. It was a credit bubble of epic proportion. Maybe Ben will need to get rates to 3% to create a new one. So far he is doing a good job... look at oil.
Stagflation is my fear now. Slow growth with inflation. Dangerous.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts Mark.. I think we should see the sector rotation after this correction clears out..Only some selective sectors will ride upside as you said.. its definitely a time for a little bounce tommorow.. it will fail again though I think to test the lows in August.. rest is left to be seen.. :).. Well, have a good evening!
Cheers.. AJ
I wouldn't be surprised to see people back in tech by early next week. People hand wring and over react 1 day, and forget about it 2 days later. With that said, I wish they would push it down more first before they push it back up ;) (tech stocks, not the market as a whole)
actually financial, retail, and home builders are so beat up, they should get some bounce too - but after they bounce they are probably just good shorts; at least financial and home builders. Retail has been beaten to a pulp and while the consumer is slowing I think that has been more than priced into these stocks, which look like they are all future Enrons the way they are acting!
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