Bookkeeping: Closing LDK Solar (LDK) in the Mania that is Solar

First Solar (FSLR) is pushing the entire group up. I think it's a bit of a mistake since First Solar is it's own animal on the profit line - the whole group is enjoying revenue surges but most of the companies are reliant on polysilicon, and hence have some profitability issues. Only First Solar is immune at this point. Even the company that has been in this space a long time and has yet to figure out how to make a dime, Evergreen Solar (ESLR) is up abut 50% in the past week. Hence I know, things are getting ahem... frothy.

LDK Solar (LDK) has been the biggest loser in the fund and the stock is up 6-7% and is approaching some resistance areas. So I am closing the position with the last 350 shares out today; this raised about $15K, but I have a pretty sizeable loss in the position (12.4%). I actually like where LDK Solar is in the food chain, and if they report an 'all clear' from their audit, trust me this one could spike 40% instantly. Well considering it is solar, I suppose it could spike 140% instantly... but this space feels like Chinese small caps about a month ago, like the dry bulk shippers about 2 weeks ago etc - investors are giddy, shorts are being destroyed, and longs feel invincible. That always gets me worried, but again I have a terrible track record in this sector of late, after being an investor in saner times (since late 2006). I knew one day these stocks would take off, but I never imagined the power of the herd....

As I said, my track record for mistiming this sector continues unabated. After selling the last of Suntech Power (STP) earlier in the week, the stock is up 16% alone today.

I have concluded that my style does not work very well in manias. I don't know; I suppose these stocks can continue adding 50% every 2 weeks indefinitely. After all valuation no longer matters....

With the sale of LDK Solar I am now completely out of the sector. Seems strange.

No positions