Friday, October 19, 2007

What's Green Today?

Posted by TraderMark at 3:14 PM TweetThis
I appear to be the only one in America applying cash today, but this is the whole reason I was raising cash the past 6 sessions - for opportunities in a sell off. Not easy buying on an afternoon like this, but I continue to layer in here and there when stocks I want fall to support. My energy exposure is just hurting bad, but crude at $72, $82, or $92 changes nothing in the group I hold - it does affect profits of integrated oil, but not the service companies or drillers - only the psychology is changed today, not the fundamentals.

What is actually green today (or near green) on the watch list?

Titanium Metals (TIE) - S&P500 addition
Suntech Power (STP) - solar
Sunpower (SPWR) - solar
CF Industries (CF) - fertilizer
Mosaic (MOS) - fertilizer
Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG), Yahoo (YHOO)
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) - I think because it was a Cramer mention?
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
ICICI Bank (IBN)

So that's about it out of about 150 stocks.

I've just added to the same infrastructure names I mentioned earlier ... wishing this Apple would fall - shows me earnings next Tuesday are going to be stellar. Not that I needed confirmation. With the slew of buying today, cash is down to about 6.5% of the portfolio as of this moment, down from near 14% entering the day (plus I sold some short ETFs to raise even more cash)

I'm debating whether to sell more of the short ETFs but with weekend hand wringing it might not be a good idea. Short of a rally into the close we could be looking at these indexes failing their support...

Anyone else buying or is it just me? (I bought in my personal account as well some of the same names) *crickets chirping* Anyone? *crickets*

Posted by TraderMark at 3:14 PM Comments (6) | Edit This Post | Create A New Post

6 comments:

Pankaj said...

I applied some cash earlier today as well but its making me nervious by the minute as I witness the damage today's fall did to many charts across the board!! This does not seem like a normal correction to me and I will try not to watch TV tonight. The TV folks will surely convince me of a doom and gloom scenario. I will be watching closely if this negative sentiment continues on Monday's open. If it does, I will change my near term bias from bull to bear until we test the recent lows in August. What say my friend?

Cheers,
AJ

October 19, 2007 3:51 PM  
Mark said...

I bought some MTW and PCAR ahead of next week's earnings....gulp.

October 19, 2007 3:52 PM  
TraderMark said...

AJ, yes TV will tell you Monday will be a replay of 1987 ;) thats how they get ratings. Mark, I dont follow PCAR but I know MTW is a crane company that is benefitting from the same global trends of groth most of my portfolio is doing - a quick look at the chart show sit fell to the 50 day moving average. A quick look at the PCAR chart however scares me - good luck with that 1!

Ok I am glad at least 2 other people on the planet were buying today. And yes when your buys at 2 PM look stupid by 4 PM you feel dumb, but its temporary. Hopefully the weekend will clear the cobwebs. Maybe Ben will cut rates on Saturday? That would be a first haha. Kidding!

October 19, 2007 4:07 PM  
TraderMark said...

AJ to answe your last question, we broke support, but for 1 day its not the end of the world - this looked like emotional selling. If we dont see a rebound by next Wednesday back above those support levels, then you have to become a near term bear in my book. That said, I finally made some profit on some of those short ETFs for gosh sake - some I had held since pre Fed cut. Ouch. But more than ready to buy them back should we further weaken. But 4% in 1 week is excessive, Russell 2000 actually was down 3.2% today but those are the small caps.

October 19, 2007 4:09 PM  
Anonymous said...

I actually sold a tiny bit of AAPL and RIMM today. Im just not sure how much longer these stocks will remain bullet-proof in the face of serious concerns about the economy as evident by the recent declines in the financial and retail groups. Eventually techs should begin to trade more in parity with these groups...whether financials/retail makes a comeback, or tech follows them into decline...all I know is they both can't be right.

October 19, 2007 4:33 PM  
TraderMark said...

It's an interesting thing to watch. Generally the 'generals' are the last to falter so if (when?) they weaken we could see a crescendo of selling. THat said, going into Apple's quarter next Tuesday, I expect all whisper numbers to be blown away. I honestly expect something surprassing the rosiest expectations just from all I read, and see (have been 3x to Best buy this quarter and they are constantly sold out of Apple gear). Now what matters is the reaction - if we sell off on a great earnings, we are toast.

My thinking is this - the consumer spending pie is shrinking but like Abercrombie $150 jeans, some things are very important and will be the last to go - for whatever reason Apple's products seem to be one of those things. Hence they have some buffer. But let's see how it plays out, in my book it is never wrong to take profit, although it stinks to watch that thing continue up. The move in RIMM has been spectacular - congrats, I have missed it, not because I didn't know about it, but I have been concentrating that 'bucket' of cash on Apple. I actually bought a little bit late in the day, so perhaps I got your shares ;)

I dont think financials retail is making a comeback anytime soon - perhaps the stocks will (dead cat bounces) but the business not for quite a while.

October 19, 2007 4:48 PM  

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