Thursday, October 11, 2007

Update on LDK Solar (LDK)

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#1 position LDK Solar (LDK) is up about 8% today and now has reached the target I outlined Tuesday for my first sales, the low $50s. This is more of a sale to reduce the fund's exposure to any 1 name more than anything. Also with a "market moving" event coming with the auditor report probably tomorrow or first half next week, the stock could react violently one way or the other.

As I outlined Monday, this specific accounting issue is more of an 'art', rather than a science from my view - so if something negative is said by the auditor the stock could fall, and I will be there with waiting arms. The worst I could see is a comment along the lines of "LDK Solar is using aggressive valuation techniques" etc - and they might need to go to a more conservative accounting of the silicon... doesn't change their business nor their sales nor raised guidance. This is a very different situation than the hocus pocus accounting of an Enron or Worldcom, back in the day...

However with LDK Solar over 7% of the fund's holdings (and growing by the day as the stock recovers), it is just getting too big. So I sold 150 of the 1650 shares (9%) as my target of low $50s was hit. Technically the stock is sitting right below its 50 day moving average of $52, so I'd expect the stock to stall here until we hear from the auditor. But with this roller coaster stock I suppose anything is possible. If the auditor gives an all clear, I would not be surprised to see a $60 print sometime next week. So either way I am content - if people overreact on 'bad news' I buy more; if an 'all clear' is issued then the stock takes off and this was just a bad nightmare for those who bought in the $60s and $70s. The cost basis for the fund is around $49, so anything up from here is now gravy.

LDK Solar is now a 6.5% position in the fund. (and the recent gains in Trina Solar (TSL) have pushed it up to #2)

Long LDK Solar in fund and in personal account


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