Wednesday, October 3, 2007

This Day In Bubbles: Let's Review Yesterday's Group!

Posted by TraderMark at 11:04 AM TweetThis
I mentioned 4 Chinese bubble names yesterday - well I don't even know their names other than they all had the word China in them.

This is how they did yesterday
CHNR +70%
RCN +50%
CTDC +33%
KUN +25%

Let's see how these great companies are doing today!
CHNR +29%
RCN +60%
CTDC -4% (boo hiss, loser!)
KUN +43%

So an equal weighted "INVESTMENT" into all these 4 names yesterday at 3:59 PM would of garnered you a 1 and 1/2 hour return of 30.5%

Awesome!
Now I see how investing really works....

Posted by TraderMark at 11:04 AM Comments (7) | Edit This Post | Create A New Post

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7 comments:

msb said...

A really great article from FT on this current craze. If you read any article at all this week, read this one.

Party like it’s 1999? Emerging markets fuel equity rally Highlights:

"Traders know that both these incidents [rate cuts in 1987, 1998] created bubbles that eventually burst. But they also know that in both 1998 and 1987, the euphoria created by the rate cuts lasted more than a year – plenty of time to make strong short-term profits."

"Teun Draaisma, European equity strategist at Morgan Stanley says another “equity mania” is possible, with retail investors piling in and companies indulging in strategic mergers and deals. “If we are right, then equities could be set for a big, big rally,” he says. “Bulls will say that this uptrend is unbreakable after all the trouble that has been thrown at it. Emerging markets will be seen as the new growth engine that cannot be derailed.”

He also predicts that the episode will “end in tears” – but that still leaves time for investors to make fat profits in the interim."

"Expectations for the third quarter, which is just finishing, are very low indeed. According to Reuters, analysts expect a rise of only 3.3 per cent year on year for S&P 500 companies. Many are betting that it will be easy to beat those expectations and land a surprise."

"According to Reuters, they [analysts] are expecting growth of more than 11 per cent both for the fourth quarter and for the first quarter of next year. These numbers could turn out to be wildly optimistic in the event of a consumer-led slowdown in the US, which looks a real possibility. If growth is this strong, moreover, it would seem likely that the Fed would raise rates."

"Rob Arnott, chairman of Research Affiliates in California, said: “What we have are earnings that are 50 or 60 per cent above their 10-year average. Historically, that happens about 5 per cent of the time. And historically, that’s a negative sign for earnings going forward.” The best performance on record after earnings had reached such a peak, he said, was for profits to grow by only 4 per cent the following year."

October 3, 2007 11:16 AM  
msb said...

Hah!
CHNR up to 50% before lunch.
RCH up 53%.
EFUT up 53%.
KONG up another 12%.
CAAS up another 11%.
CBAK up 14%.
GAI up 26%.

On and on.

October 3, 2007 11:55 AM  
TraderMark said...

I read 'em all!
I just need to clone myself as I am running out of hours in the day.

Here is a blog which shows all of them for the year.

What do you think these Chinese executives on the mainland are thinking right now? Other than laughing smugly. I cannot even find financials on most of these companies... "Look we don't even need to provide financials to the Americans and our stocks go up 150%"

Now the next step if we are to follow the dot com playbook is for these companies to start announcing splits. Upon which the stocks rally another 40-60%. Thats how it used to work.. I remember buying stocks off split announcements and getting 30% in 1 day.

Don't they say history repeats itself?

October 3, 2007 12:05 PM  
TraderMark said...

oops here is the blog
http://stocksgonewild.blogspot.com/2007/10/ytd-performance-ranking-of-us-listed.html

October 3, 2007 12:05 PM  
TraderMark said...

For god sakes, 2 of these stocks are up 40% again! another is up 20%. Only CDTC is a laggard. I will have to drop that stock and concentrate on the other 3, which are clearly changing the world!

October 4, 2007 12:01 PM  
msb said...

Today's random Chinese pops:

CHNR: +25%
RCH: +37%
GSI: General Steel Holdings Inc . +55% to 14.70
NEOL: NeoPharm Inc . +25% to 1.25
NOEC: New Oriental Energy & Chemical Corp . +9% to 8.60 (possible jump later in the day, who knows)
ORS: Orsus Xelent Technolgies Inc . +25% to $4.06
KUN: China Shenghuo Pharmaceutical Holdings Inc . +40% to ~$15
CYTV: China YouTV Corp. +60% to $0.20

October 4, 2007 12:23 PM  
TraderMark said...

Sadly I considered a speculative buy in personal account of KUN at $6
I figured, pharmaceutical in China for $6? Must be worth at least $10 ;)

Little did I know it was worth $15

China YouTV? Now thats a catchy name.

I'd say anything under $10 has a chance to go to double digits in this "world" of investing.

October 4, 2007 1:02 PM  

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