I am cutting back my large position in Trina Solar (TSL) even further based off the Sunpower (SPWR) gross margins. I have sat here aghast that despite pathetic margins last quarter 'investors' ran up the stock 40% last quarter, and Sunpower came in this quarter with 16.4% gross margins. Another pretty pathetic performance when competitors like Suntech Power (STP) are coming in at the low 20s.
US investors seem to be in love with the revenue growth in this sector and not caring much about profitability - gross margins do matter as without gross margins your entire P&L is stressed. Investors seem very drunk on revenue growth and thinking "in the end things will take care of itself" but with these stocks screaming, and the fact Sunpower (SPWR) did not raise earnings guidance (I contend because gross margins are under pressure) for 2008, it just doesn't sit well with me.
So I am going to reduce my solar exposure - now the Chinese solar companies have an advantage of cheaper labor so maybe they will surprise but I don't want to take the chance. I am reducing Trina Solar from 600 shares to 200 shares. I had already been cutting these names Monday on the lack of price action. This sale takes Trina down from 3.4% of the fund down to 1.0%. Once again, if I am 'wrong', I can always buy back later, even if it comes at higher prices since the long term story should still be quite bullish.
Again, I am a long term bull on this sector but profitability matters (to me), if not for the lemmings who think if you sell 10,000,000 widgets at low profit its better than selling 400,000 widgets at high profit. To me, this sector seems to trade down around earnings (in general) when reality hits, then rises in the 2.5 months in between earnings reports as 'hope' replaces 'reality'. So with reality hitting the next 3 weeks I plan to be cautious and look for better entry points, after I get more information.
Long Trina Solar in fund; no personal position
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Reducing Trina Solar (TSL) by 2/3rd Due to Sunpower (SPWR)
Posted by
Mark
at
9:35 AM
Comments (4)
| Edit This Post |
Create A New Post
Labels: Trina Solar
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Financial Blogroll
- FinViz.com
- Euro Pacific
- Zero Hedge
- BeSpoke Investment
- The Big Picture
- Newsflashr
- Wall St Cheet Sheat
- Baseline Scenario
- Naked Capitalism
- Abnormal Returns
- TickerSpy
- FT.com Alphaville.com
- Calculated Risk
- Infectious Greed
- Financial Armageddon
- Wall Street Window
- Mad Hedge Fund Trader
- Real Clear Markets
- Matt Taibbi Blog
- 24/7 Wall Street
- The Daily Bail
- Cumberland Advisors
- NYMag
- All About Trends
- Market Oracle
- Markman
- Notable Calls
- Carpe Diem
- What's Trading
- Finz.tv
- UpsideTrader
- Zentrader
- Investment Postcards
- Dealbreaker
- Stock Trading to Go
- Toro's Running of the Bulls
- Barron's Tech Trader Daily
- FINAlternatives (Hedge Funds)
- Money and Markets
- StreetInsider Analysts News
- Blogging Stocks (AOL)
- The Daily Reckoning
- ETF Trends
- Hedge Fund Consultant Blog
- Get Rich Slick
- Guru Focus
- Fundmastery
- The Fly on the Wall
- Bill Gross PIMCO Archives
- MrSwing.com
Our Readers' Websites
Industry Focus Sites
Some Mutual Funds That Perk My Interest
- CGM Mutual (Kenneth Heebner)
- CGM Focus (Kenneth Heebner)
- Quaker Strategic Growth
- Loomis Sayles Mid Cap Growth
- Bridgeway Aggressive Investors
- Eaton Vance Multi Cap Growth
- Saratoga Large Cap Growth
- AFBA Five Star Large Cap
- American Century Vista
- American Century Heritage
- TCW Growth Equities
- Dynamic Power American Growth (Noah Blackstein)
- Dover Long/Short Sector Fund
Weekly Most Read
- 1: Warren Buffet Piles on Europe
- 2: [Video] Jim Chanos Returns from Europe, Even More Bearish on China
- 3: A Chart to Open Our Eyes - Staggering Changes by Multinationals in Employment Behavior 00s vs 90s
- 4: Futures Blasted on Dexia Woes... and Poor Preliminary China Data
- 5: Market Working to Worst Thanksgiving Since 1932
- 6: Et Tu, German Bonds? Poor Auction Raises Eyebrows
Archives By Date
-
►
2011(1304)
-
►
12/11 - 12/18(11)
- Market Montage Officially Launches Tomorrow
- Goodbye and Goodnight Fund My Mutual Fund
- Nothing Much from the Fed Other than a Few Words C...
- [Videos] Howard Davidowitz Grumpy as Usual
- Bad Economy? Yeah Right - Not in the Farming Heart...
- Marketwatch: Why Did 24 Hour Trading Never Take Of...
- Still Holding On
- Some Caution Now Technically on the Gold (GLD) Tra...
- USA Today: As Bernanke Punishes American Savers, t...
- Risk Off for the Day it Appears
- Zynga (ZNGA) Heads the List on Busiest IPO Week Si...
-
►
12/04 - 12/11(29)
- Move Day Next Week
- Update on the Battle of the 200 Days
- [Video] ECRI Still Sticking with Recession Call De...
- DuPont (DD) Warns this Morning as "Decoupling" The...
- There Was Just another Rumor Released Via a News A...
- Q3 Was Not a Good Quarter for American Wealth - Wo...
- The Battle of the 200 Days?
- Ford (F) Halted, Reinstates Dividend
- [Video] Marc Faber Visits Bloomberg
- Draghi Announced 4 Non Standard Measures at Presse...
- ECB "Only" Cuts Rates Back to Record Lows by 0.25%...
- And... IMF Official Denies Rumor
- Need a Rumor to End the Day Right? Got One
- Are We Making Too Much of the Drop in Labor Force ...
- A Lot of People are Living the "College Lifestyle"...
- [Video] Bob Prechter is Back... and Shockingly, St...
- The Journey to Nowhere Has Been a Wild Trip Since ...
- S&P 1265 Again
- Who Wants Action?
- Some Days....
- If the S&P 500 Was Equal Weighted Rather than Mark...
- [Video] Tom DeMark Says S&P 1330+ by Christmas, wi...
- Just about Every Country in Europe Downgraded
- GMO's Jeremy Grantham's Q3 Letter: The Shortest Qu...
- FT.com Report S&P to Put 6 Euro Nations on Credit ...
- Steve Liesman of CNBC Still Believes no ECB Bazook...
- Uncle Buffet Has to Be Pleased about the Bank of A...
- ISM Non Manufacturing 52.0 vs Expectation of 53.9
- Back to (the New) Normal
-
►
11/27 - 12/04(30)
- No Posts Today
- Average Foreclosure Time Sets New Record of 631 Da...
- Were Yesterday's Actions by Central Banks, a Way t...
- Big Drop in Hedge Fund Exposure to Market in Q3
- ISM Manufacturing 52.7 vs Expectations of 51.5
- And There Goes Another of the Former Teflon Stocks...
- Official Chinese PMI Figures Confirms Last Week's ...
- Best Day Since March 2009
- Junk Stocks Leading, Not a Great Sign
- "Risk On", "Risk Off" Has Officially Jumped the Sh...
- ► 11/20 - 11/27(20)
- ► 11/13 - 11/20(30)
- ► 11/06 - 11/13(32)
- ► 10/30 - 11/06(30)
- ► 10/23 - 10/30(33)
- ► 10/16 - 10/23(30)
- ► 10/09 - 10/16(23)
- ► 10/02 - 10/09(30)
- ► 09/25 - 10/02(31)
- ► 09/18 - 09/25(30)
- ► 09/11 - 09/18(33)
- ► 09/04 - 09/11(27)
- ► 08/28 - 09/04(24)
- ► 08/21 - 08/28(35)
- ► 08/14 - 08/21(23)
- ► 08/07 - 08/14(28)
- ► 07/31 - 08/07(36)
- ► 07/24 - 07/31(21)
- ► 07/17 - 07/24(27)
- ► 07/10 - 07/17(21)
- ► 07/03 - 07/10(21)
- ► 06/26 - 07/03(25)
- ► 06/19 - 06/26(20)
- ► 06/12 - 06/19(30)
- ► 06/05 - 06/12(18)
- ► 05/29 - 06/05(29)
- ► 05/22 - 05/29(28)
- ► 05/15 - 05/22(29)
- ► 05/08 - 05/15(28)
- ► 05/01 - 05/08(30)
- ► 04/24 - 05/01(26)
- ► 04/17 - 04/24(28)
- ► 04/10 - 04/17(30)
- ► 04/03 - 04/10(26)
- ► 03/27 - 04/03(20)
- ► 03/20 - 03/27(12)
- ► 03/13 - 03/20(22)
- ► 03/06 - 03/13(29)
- ► 02/27 - 03/06(20)
- ► 02/20 - 02/27(19)
- ► 02/13 - 02/20(22)
- ► 02/06 - 02/13(29)
- ► 01/30 - 02/06(34)
- ► 01/23 - 01/30(29)
- ► 01/16 - 01/23(18)
- ► 01/09 - 01/16(21)
- ► 01/02 - 01/09(27)
-
►
12/11 - 12/18(11)
-
►
2010(1727)
- ► 12/26 - 01/02(10)
- ► 12/19 - 12/26(16)
- ► 12/12 - 12/19(29)
- ► 12/05 - 12/12(30)
- ► 11/28 - 12/05(44)
- ► 11/21 - 11/28(23)
- ► 11/14 - 11/21(39)
- ► 11/07 - 11/14(44)
- ► 10/31 - 11/07(45)
- ► 10/24 - 10/31(37)
- ► 10/17 - 10/24(42)
- ► 10/10 - 10/17(34)
- ► 10/03 - 10/10(45)
- ► 09/26 - 10/03(35)
- ► 09/19 - 09/26(42)
- ► 09/12 - 09/19(43)
- ► 09/05 - 09/12(28)
- ► 08/29 - 09/05(29)
- ► 08/22 - 08/29(24)
- ► 08/15 - 08/22(26)
- ► 08/08 - 08/15(32)
- ► 08/01 - 08/08(36)
- ► 07/25 - 08/01(35)
- ► 07/18 - 07/25(33)
- ► 07/11 - 07/18(35)
- ► 07/04 - 07/11(27)
- ► 06/27 - 07/04(37)
- ► 06/20 - 06/27(39)
- ► 06/13 - 06/20(37)
- ► 06/06 - 06/13(33)
- ► 05/30 - 06/06(28)
- ► 05/23 - 05/30(31)
- ► 05/16 - 05/23(41)
- ► 05/09 - 05/16(35)
- ► 05/02 - 05/09(34)
- ► 04/25 - 05/02(26)
- ► 04/18 - 04/25(22)
- ► 04/11 - 04/18(30)
- ► 04/04 - 04/11(25)
- ► 03/28 - 04/04(21)
- ► 03/21 - 03/28(35)
- ► 03/14 - 03/21(41)
- ► 03/07 - 03/14(40)
- ► 02/28 - 03/07(37)
- ► 02/21 - 02/28(25)
- ► 02/14 - 02/21(23)
- ► 02/07 - 02/14(33)
- ► 01/31 - 02/07(37)
- ► 01/24 - 01/31(45)
- ► 01/17 - 01/24(37)
- ► 01/10 - 01/17(37)
- ► 01/03 - 01/10(35)
-
►
2009(2099)
- ► 12/27 - 01/03(21)
- ► 12/20 - 12/27(33)
- ► 12/13 - 12/20(38)
- ► 12/06 - 12/13(38)
- ► 11/29 - 12/06(37)
- ► 11/22 - 11/29(26)
- ► 11/15 - 11/22(34)
- ► 11/08 - 11/15(38)
- ► 11/01 - 11/08(38)
- ► 10/25 - 11/01(48)
- ► 10/18 - 10/25(37)
- ► 10/11 - 10/18(40)
- ► 10/04 - 10/11(35)
- ► 09/27 - 10/04(41)
- ► 09/20 - 09/27(39)
- ► 09/13 - 09/20(35)
- ► 09/06 - 09/13(32)
- ► 08/30 - 09/06(32)
- ► 08/23 - 08/30(34)
- ► 08/16 - 08/23(36)
- ► 08/09 - 08/16(39)
- ► 08/02 - 08/09(40)
- ► 07/26 - 08/02(45)
- ► 07/19 - 07/26(45)
- ► 07/12 - 07/19(45)
- ► 07/05 - 07/12(40)
- ► 06/28 - 07/05(31)
- ► 06/21 - 06/28(37)
- ► 06/14 - 06/21(44)
- ► 06/07 - 06/14(42)
- ► 05/31 - 06/07(44)
- ► 05/24 - 05/31(39)
- ► 05/17 - 05/24(33)
- ► 05/10 - 05/17(39)
- ► 05/03 - 05/10(47)
- ► 04/26 - 05/03(45)
- ► 04/19 - 04/26(43)
- ► 04/12 - 04/19(40)
- ► 04/05 - 04/12(40)
- ► 03/29 - 04/05(40)
- ► 03/22 - 03/29(45)
- ► 03/15 - 03/22(45)
- ► 03/08 - 03/15(46)
- ► 03/01 - 03/08(49)
- ► 02/22 - 03/01(49)
- ► 02/15 - 02/22(45)
- ► 02/08 - 02/15(49)
- ► 02/01 - 02/08(49)
- ► 01/25 - 02/01(49)
- ► 01/18 - 01/25(38)
- ► 01/11 - 01/18(53)
- ► 01/04 - 01/11(52)
-
►
2008(2199)
- ► 12/28 - 01/04(27)
- ► 12/21 - 12/28(25)
- ► 12/14 - 12/21(41)
- ► 12/07 - 12/14(39)
- ► 11/30 - 12/07(34)
- ► 11/23 - 11/30(31)
- ► 11/16 - 11/23(33)
- ► 11/09 - 11/16(33)
- ► 11/02 - 11/09(33)
- ► 10/26 - 11/02(43)
- ► 10/19 - 10/26(35)
- ► 10/12 - 10/19(34)
- ► 10/05 - 10/12(38)
- ► 09/28 - 10/05(40)
- ► 09/21 - 09/28(46)
- ► 09/14 - 09/21(52)
- ► 09/07 - 09/14(49)
- ► 08/31 - 09/07(36)
- ► 08/24 - 08/31(43)
- ► 08/17 - 08/24(48)
- ► 08/10 - 08/17(50)
- ► 08/03 - 08/10(46)
- ► 07/27 - 08/03(46)
- ► 07/20 - 07/27(49)
- ► 07/13 - 07/20(48)
- ► 07/06 - 07/13(52)
- ► 06/29 - 07/06(42)
- ► 06/22 - 06/29(47)
- ► 06/15 - 06/22(41)
- ► 06/08 - 06/15(39)
- ► 06/01 - 06/08(36)
- ► 05/25 - 06/01(30)
- ► 05/18 - 05/25(39)
- ► 05/11 - 05/18(40)
- ► 05/04 - 05/11(41)
- ► 04/27 - 05/04(48)
- ► 04/20 - 04/27(44)
- ► 04/13 - 04/20(48)
- ► 04/06 - 04/13(41)
- ► 03/30 - 04/06(54)
- ► 03/23 - 03/30(41)
- ► 03/16 - 03/23(47)
- ► 03/09 - 03/16(32)
- ► 03/02 - 03/09(44)
- ► 02/24 - 03/02(54)
- ► 02/17 - 02/24(40)
- ► 02/10 - 02/17(57)
- ► 02/03 - 02/10(57)
- ► 01/27 - 02/03(49)
- ► 01/20 - 01/27(48)
- ► 01/13 - 01/20(46)
- ► 01/06 - 01/13(43)
-
▼
2007(913)
- ► 12/30 - 01/06(33)
- ► 12/23 - 12/30(29)
- ► 12/16 - 12/23(39)
- ► 12/09 - 12/16(36)
- ► 12/02 - 12/09(33)
- ► 11/25 - 12/02(44)
- ► 11/18 - 11/25(25)
- ► 11/11 - 11/18(44)
- ► 11/04 - 11/11(54)
- ► 10/28 - 11/04(51)
- ► 10/21 - 10/28(57)
-
▼
10/14 - 10/21(55)
- All Fund Holdings Updated Mid October
- Julian Robertson Calling for "Doozy of a Recession...
- Et tu Redux!
- The Velocity of Downturns
- Bookkeeping: 'Rising Tide' Performance Week 11
- Throwing More Short ETFs Overboard
- Welcome Back Home Baidu.com (BIDU)
- What's Green Today?
- Earnings Review
- Adding to my Infrastructure Exposure
- Bought More CF Industries (CF) - I Can't Help Myse...
- Titanium Metals (TIE) and Short ETFs
- New Position for Portfolio: CGGVeritas (CGV)
- Schlumberger (SLB) Selloff has me Buying into Oil ...
- Sandisk (SNDK) Blowing Up - Down 10% Off Earnings
- Guess the Company
- Earnings - Today and Tomorrow
- The Global Millionaire Boom
- A Quiet Day - Doing some Small Buying
- Bet Your Parrot Can't Do This: Parrot Dancing and ...
- Positioning Ahead of Google (GOOG)
- Bookkeeping: Adding to Bolt Technology (BTJ)
- Reducing Trina Solar (TSL) by 2/3rd Due to Sunpowe...
- Thursday's Big Earnings Day
- PetroChina 12% Away from being the Largest Company...
- Capital Preservation is Half the Battle
- Restarting Bolt Technology (BTJ)
- Key Technical Support Levels for the Indexes
- Bookkeeping: Adding more Mastercard (MA)
- Tide Might Be Turning Back Towards Bears
- Blue Coat Systems (BCSI) - You Can't Stop It; You ...
- Rock on Blackrock (BLK)
- Speaking of Impotent
- Why Indian Stocks Fell So Hard Yesterday
- No More Problems
- Crazy Bolt Technology (BTJ)! Mosaic (MOS) Major S...
- Bookkeeping: Rebuilding Mastercard (MA)
- Bookkeeping: Closing Bolt Technology (BTJ) Positi...
- Bookkeeping: Adding to the Deep Sea Oil Drilling ...
- Buying a Bucket of India
- You Want Out of Your Hedge Fund? Not So Fast
- Bookkeeping: Cutting 3 Long Position and 3 Short
- Goldman's "Blowout Quarter"
- More Rate Cuts on the Way
- Breaking Story: Stock Market Down
- Bookkeeping: Cutting Back on Solar Exposure
- Bookkeping: Selling Down my 2 Indian Banks - ICICI...
- The Super Bailout Fund
- Coach (COH) Continues to Break Down
- Taking Profits on New Oriental Education (EDU) & C...
- Some Notes This Morning: PetroChina (PTR), buybac...
- Zachstocks With a Nice Review of One of My Smaller...
- Cleaning Up Some Items from Last Week
- Earnings of Interest Mon/Tue
- Sector Focus: Infrastructure
- ► 10/07 - 10/14(57)
- ► 09/30 - 10/07(55)
- ► 09/23 - 09/30(41)
- ► 09/16 - 09/23(41)
- ► 09/09 - 09/16(37)
- ► 09/02 - 09/09(31)
- ► 08/26 - 09/02(44)
- ► 08/19 - 08/26(43)
- ► 08/12 - 08/19(37)
- ► 08/05 - 08/12(27)







4 comments:
Any thougs about Trina´s +6% gain in friday?
Well on the positive side it recaptured its 50 day moving average Friday . On the negative it has not been acting well for a few weeks. Unfortunately it reminds me of how NII Holdings was looking technically before it reported - middling performance in an up market. Hence I am taking a cautious stance and just playing the odds - generally when stocks are not acting well, they telegraph ahead of us some "not so great" news. Nothing is foolproof, again I am just playing probability and risk mitigation. It could surprise me, and have a great quarter but I am suspect when nearly every stock in the sector has had a great quarter of stock price improvement, and Trina has lagged by a huge margin. So I remain cautious and will re-assess post earnings. If it pops without me, that's ok - this is why you have a portfolio of stocks. I just don't feel the same confidence in Trina as I do in many other names, either in that sector or other sectors so I don't want to risk a large drop in stock price.
Still nothing positive for TSL?
Once it broke past $54 it turned better technically, I blogged about that on the Suntech Power post yesterday.
With that said, TSL is the last remaining value in the sector now that STP has run. How is that for positive. BUt I still wonder why it remains the only value.
THe short story right now to me is "solar" is in a near term bubble as retail investors and hedge funds chase the sexy thing. Near term fundamentals are not cared about. I suspect these companies will report relatively suspect gross margins this quarter but say "things are going to get better in the future as polysilicon drops" At this point in the mania for solar thats good enough for investors to keep driving them up. Aside from TSL I cannot buy any of these in good conscience as their valuations are now ridiculous.
Post a Comment