Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Quiet Earnings Day Today, Huge Day Tomorrow

TweetThis
Relatively quiet day today for stocks in the fund; tomorrow should be a doozy with typical potential for blowing a leg off on any misstep ...
  • Baidu.com (BIDU) - Well what can you say. Priced for perfection and analysts have come out to say expect an inline quarter just in the past week. Will it matter? I doubt it; the momentum type of investors in this name will quickly forget such caution and demand only the best. Hopefully some sort of selloff ensues - I only have a 1.0% position in this name and would like to add more, but preferably somewhere in the mid $200s range. (one can hope?) This is another investor psychology stock like Apple (AAPL) or Google (GOOG).
  • Bunge (BG) - this is almost like buying the MOO ETF all in 1 stock - it has its hands in all parts of the agriculture business. It's got a big retail division so I don't like it as much as the pure play businesses in this sector but the stock has been a big winner and it plays on the same themes.
  • Celgene (CELG) - I mentioned last week that I don't do "medical" but gun to head if I had to buy one it would be Gilead; well Celgene would be 1B to Gilead's 1A. Both excellent companies.
  • Cemex (CX) - this is a company on my long term watch list. It's had a tough time due to the residential housing bust in the US, but it essentially is a Mexican cement company which is becoming the de facto standard in the region. At some point it will be a great investment again. But for now, it is struggling.
  • CVRD (RIO) - this is one of the "Big 3" mining companies I mentioned earlier today.
  • Consol Energy (CNX) - this is one of my 2 coal plays. Just like Arch Coal (ACI) expect a shoddy quarter, but good words for the future as the coal supply/demand dynamic turns back in favor of the producers.
  • Cummins Engine (CMI) - this is the engine maker in the fund and one of the few 'industrial' stocks. My thesis for this stock was outlined here. While many of the industrial stocks have taken a hit of late due to US slowing economy (despite their gangbusters foreign exposure) I will be curious what Cummins reports. Remember, they have been in India and China for a long time - not some Johnny come lately. So we will see if strength in emerging markets is enough to offset the shoddy US economy. This might be one which sells of on weakness in US, creating a better entry point...
  • Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO) - one of my myriad deep sea oil drillers; I hope what they say can combat the hand wringing that seems to be going on in the sector. I expect very good things. (note: Ensco (ESV) a jackup driller also reports this day so let's see if there is a discrepancy between the deep sea and jackup drillers as I suspect)
  • Evergreen Solar (ESLR) - talk about the dog in the sector. There are 3 major U.S. solar stocks - the other 2: First Solar (FSLR) and Sunpower (SPWR) trade at 45 bazillion x earnings and Evergreen, which is the longest public, has not figured out how to yet make money yet.
  • Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) - see my comments on CME Group (CME) and expect much of the same.
  • Massey Energy (MEE) - this is yet another coal producer but more focused on the metallurgical coal - it's had some struggles of late, but Barron's came out a few weeks ago with a bullish article; curious to see what is going on there.
  • MEMC Electronics (WFR) - this is essentially becoming an arms merchant for the solar producers - this stock had a huge run the past few years but has slowed down lately - will be curious what their comments are in the polysilicon market side of things.
  • Meritage Homes (MTH) - NOT!
  • Some no name tech company called Microsoft (MSFT) - if Intel (INTC) is doing well, Microsoft is probably also doing well since their OS goes into most Intel machines. Not quite the bellweather it once but found in just about every large cap mutual fund in the country.
  • NII Holdings (NIHD) - another fund holding which I have stuck with despite a gosh awful chart. I hope they come out with bad news, disappoint, and can finally sell down to an area it makes a bottom so it can begin the rebuilding process. I really like the potential in this company, but its been stuck the entire quarter in molasses.
  • Potash (POT) - the big fish in the fertilizer space. The stock has been stalled the past few days so I ventured back in; not a huge position as the valuation leaves very little leeway. While I believe they will have great earnings, its possible this will be a "sell on the news" or "what you only did 55% growth? We expected 57.8% - your stock goes down 15%! How dare you under perform like that!" situation. Or they blow the doors off - who really knows. It doesn't change the long term dynamic, just the short term price.
  • Stamps.com (STMP) - oops sorry! Wrong decade. This decades bubble is ChineseStamps.com. Aha! A business idea!
  • Suncor Energy (SU) - I watch this one with 1 eye - its supposedly the best way to play the 'next big thing' - oil sands in Canada
  • Terra Industries (TRA) - yet another agricultural play!
Enough! Enough! Uncle!

Disclaimer: The opinions listed on this blog are for educational purpose only. You should do your own research before making any decisions.
This blog, its affiliates, partners or authors are not responsible or liable for any misstatements and/or losses you might sustain from the content provided.


Site by codeeo
Original WP Premium theme by WP Remix