Parsing the Fund into Technical Brackets Part 2

For Part 1 of this entry click here

Bucket 1: Strong uptrend, no real pullbacks, hovering constantly around 5 day moving average (pure momentum guys will prefer these names)

1. HDFC Bank (HDB)
2. Icici Bank (IBN)
3. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)
4. The India Fund (IFN)
5. Jacobs Engineering Group (JEC)
6. KBR (KBR)
7. Mastercard (MA)
8. McDermott International (MDR)
9. National Oilwell Varco (NOV)
10. Potash Corp of Saskatchewan (POT)
11. Shaw Group (SGR)
    

Bucket 2: Strong uptrend, but stock has pulled back to 20 day moving average (I have been buying many of these names)

1. Juniper Networks (JNPR)
2. Mosaic (MOS)
3. Suntech Power (STP)
   

Bucket 3: Uptrend, but stock has fallen back to 50 day moving average (this is the best place to buy IF the uptrend stays in tact; if it is broken you want to turn bearish until things improve)

1. Pride International (PDE) - this name can go between bucket 3 and bucket 4 on a daily basis. Making it a buy, then a sell, then a buy, then a sell (using my method) constantly. Essentially it is attached to the hip with its 50 day moving average and seems boxed in on the top side at low $37s. I will now wait until I see a $38 print before re-entering in larger scale.
2. Riverbed Technology (RVBD) - Identical story to Pride International; constant fluttering around the 50 day moving average, a sharp break below here or there but like a magnet gravitating back to this moving average. It should break to $50 at some point, but needs to see a strong push past $46 to be convincing.
3. Trina Solar (TSL) - this stock was in a nice uptrend until the LDK Solar (LDK) news filtered out and took down many in the sector. Provided it holds $54 the stock is still in good shape; a break below $54 on volume and you need to begin to exit stage left (for the near term at least).
   

Bucket 4: Below 50 day but above 200 day moving average (have to analyze case by case but in general its sort of no man's land technically, and generally not a great place to be)

1. Sandisk (SNDK) - another name that I have been building than tearing down literally by the week as its an indecisive technical chart. Last week it was slightly above the 50 day (Bucket 3) this week its below. The fundamentals seem to be in place for a nice run, but the technicals never seem to stay in place for more than half a week.
2. Under Armour (UA) - a recent addition to the fund; a perfect example of a stock that fell to first support level of the 50 day moving average (just above $60) - sat there a few days, than continued its descent downward (look out below). At this point a buy near to the $53 level (200 day moving average) looks like the next step, but rumors of an earnings shortfall are dogging this stock and even at $53 it is no bargain from a fundamental standpoint.
   

Bucket 5: Below 200 day moving average (generally bearish)

1. Desarolladora Homex (HXM)
2. NII Holdings (NIHD) - note this went from bucket 1 to bucket 5 in a matter of 2 trading sessions - whew! Hence you see why my sudden "flip flop" from bullish to far less so for the near term.
3. Titanium Metals (TIE) - very disappointing performance. After a nice breakout on great volume on the 19th and 20th, the past 2 sessions have been a disaster technically, breaking below both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. As noted, I lightened up on this name and it looks like a return to $30 is on the horizon (currently at $32), unless some stock price action reversal happens very soon.
4. Western Refining (WNR) - another recent "add" to a smaller position although I cautioned this one is catching a knife, so the position is not built out until some reversal in price action is shown. With the margins for the refiners at yearly lows the near term picture is not very good. Have to wait for improvement before adding more.
   

Bucket 6: Outliers that don't go into any other bucket

1. LDK Solar (LDK) - where do I start? :) This was in bucket 1 until 30 hours ago
2. Perini (PCR) - ok I admit this one flummoxed me. This is an infrastructure play that struggled week after week while the rest of the group took off. It went from a constant struggle to get past the 50 day moving average, to suddenly bursting through. I lightened up on this position at the wrong time.

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This 2nd half of the portfolio has a few more names in Bucket 3, but 2 of them have been perennial holdouts and not wanting to graduate up to Bucket 2, so I need to see more from them before committing more. (RVBD/PDE). As stated, I have been adding buckets of Trina Solar the past 2 sessions which is the 3rd member in this group. Of buckets 4 through 6, Perini is the name I need to look to build up as its finally made a technical change (let's hope it holds), after weeks of under performance to its peer group. It is a very 'cheap' stock relative to its peers as well.