Tuesday, October 9, 2007

Our Old Friend Coach (COH) - Don't Forget Her

I have referred many times to Coach (COH) as my canary in the coal mine for the American consumer; especially since it serves the 'aspirational' class - i.e. "I want to look richer than I really am so I overspend and pull money out of my house like an ATM to impress the ladies at work" crowd. Well the stock is again breaking down below both its 50 and 200 day moving averages.

Again, I cannot be short in this fund, but many retailers and restaurant stocks are going to be great shorts (note: exclude restaurants with international exposure like a YUM or MCD or those with $5 type of menus - most of the middle end chains I see a slowdown both from the consumer and major squeeze on their costs) Don't ignore the fact the weaker dollar hurts importers - and some of our food supply comes from overseas; so on top of the domestic food inflation we have the imported kind - on top of a weaker dollar.

But I think Coach (COH) is telling us, the US consumer is finally slowing down without access to 'the ultimate credit card i.e. the house'. I know the market is forgetting but don't ignore the Target (TGT) and Lowe's (LOW) tells from a few weeks ago.

No positions

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