I've decided to start a mid sized position in a new position: UltraShort Oil & Gas (DUG)
This can provide a bit of a hedge against my large energy positions. Interestingly it shorts the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index. Now keep in mind those are exactly the type of stocks levered to crude oil prices. So when those prices fall, these type of stocks tend to move in direct correlation since their earnings are much more correlated to the price of crude. These are exactly the type of stocks I avoid since they are much more cyclical in nature than deep sea oil drillers or the oil service names I favor - although "all" of the group is affected by group think psychology on the street - i.e. when crude drops they all drop, and vice versa (not that it should work that way)
While I am a long term bull on the price of crude, this steep rise to $90 could offer a short term pullback, and/or even if crude does not pullback but the actual E&P stocks in this index pullback I have a bit of a small hedge at least.
I bought 450 shares or about $19,000 - first time I've ever tried this particular short ETF so I'd like to see it in action for a while longer before committing more. The technicals in the chart mean nothing since this is an "index".
What are the main holdings this shorts against?
Occidental Petroleum 10.5%
Valero Energy 7.8% (this is actually a refiner, not a typical E&P company)
Devon Energy 7.6%
Apache Corp 6.6%
Andarko 6.0%
XTO Energy 5.6%
etc
So if you are familiar with these names, these are well run companies but tied much more to the US market, and with some natural gas exposure to boot; so potentially this could be a good hedge versus the large energy exposure I have.
Long UltraShort Oil & Gas in fund; no personal position
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
New Short Position: UltraShort Oil & Gas (DUG)
Posted by
TraderMark
at
11:26 AM
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Labels: Ultrashort Oil - Gas
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2 comments:
If you ever get that mutual fund running, you can count on my $2,500.
thanks :) I need a bit longer of a public track record - lets revisit in 18 months. So far very pleased with the results vs what indexes do. I vowed that if I can't beat indexes over time, then I would have no value to an investor (which is the case for 80% of funds unfortunately)! Let's see how it plays out. Mark
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