Thursday, October 11, 2007

Let's Check in on Ruby Tuesday (RT)

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I know nothing about Ruby Tuesday (RT) other than its a restaurant. I've never eaten there; I have never digged into the stock, but I know it serves food and it serves US consumers and is not at the very low end of fast food. So therefore its a good short (if I could) - see "Tough Times Ahead: Restaurants?" from mid September. I mentioned coming into the week I'd be interested in this name as the bell weather for a typical middle class food chain (slowing consumer PLUS rising food costs).

Finally had some time to look at their numbers - pretty ugly folks. Stock was down 14%. Like I said, nice short - if I could. At least they did not blame it on the warm weather. Again, I rarely if ever invest in a non growth area like restaurants (save for a Chipotle's whom I think is also a dangerous candidate for a warning, if not this quarter then next) so maybe some of the issues are chain specific, but....
  • Shares of Ruby Tuesday Inc. fell to a four-year low on Thursday, after the restaurant operator reported a decline in fiscal first-quarter earnings and lowered its fiscal 2008 profit outlook.
  • Ruby Tuesday on Wednesday posted 49 percent lower fiscal first-quarter earnings on a 4.8 percent decline in same-store restaurant sales and higher remodeling costs.
  • Ruby Tuesday also lowered its fiscal 2008 earnings outlook.
  • Credit Suisse analyst Keith Siegner said the fiscal first-quarter results and outlook were "horrible."
  • Siegner said a new strategy to help boost sales and revive customer traffic will likely hurt margins and lower free cash flow.
*******
But other than that, things were fine....

Just to make sure this is not company specific I will keep an eye out for some of the major chains such as Dardens (DRI), Applebees (APPB), Bob Evans (BOBE), et al. Chipotle (CMG) has thus far been able to avoid the frey due to their wonderful growth, and being one of the very few growth stories in the sector I am very interested in their comments as well; they report October 30th.

Not long the US consumer

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