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Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Following My Own Advice - Adding to 2 Earnings Winners

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I mentioned earlier today:

But when the smoke clears, keep in the back of your mind stocks that deliver standout earnings but the stock price doesn't react - those are the stocks that will generally jump at some point in the future.

So I am taking my own advice and adding to recent winner National Oilwell Varco (NOV), and CNH Global (CNH) here. While the stocks could retreat more with the market, there is nothing 'safer' in my book (safe always being a relative term in a dropping market) than buying companies who just reported blowout earnings and great comments about the future. Once the market mood settles down these are the types of stocks you want in the top portion of your portfolio.

I did sell some of my UltraShort ETFs to raise cash for these buys. The market obviously remains skittish, but with Helicopter Ben hovering only a week away, you can almost hear the cries of rejoice in office building across Manhattan. While I think all these cuts and floods of liquidity only forestall the inevitable I will keep playing the 'game', and sticking to the areas (less of them each week) which can withstand (relatively) the coming weakness. My bias on the market as a whole is still negative... despite that I actually have a very long positioning. A bit of a conundrum. I really like the selection of stocks I own, but unfortunately the backdrop of the market as a whole with overpriced tech stocks like Amazon and VMWare on 1 side (I know, I know they are so cheap on 2012 earnings) and degrading domestic facing stocks on the other are causing major overhang. (not to mention overheated emerging markets from the 3rd side? Is there a 3rd side?)

You can take your super store online retailer for 60x earnings, I'll take NOV for 17x. For the same growth....

I wonder now if the 'intelligence' of the market is finally coming around to realizing why we need to have such massive liquidity injections and rate cuts, instead of just clapping like joyous 3 year olds that they are coming. I'm still calling for 4% Fed funds by first meeting of 08.

Long CNH Global and National Oilwell Varco in fund; no personal positions

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