Monday, October 22, 2007

Earnings on Tap

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Let's look at what's important Monday - Tuesday

Monday
  1. Apple (AAPL) - I hesitate to type anything else. Apple is really all that matters. :) I just bought 30 more shares here; yes I'd like to buy cheaper but I'd also like Jessica Alba to give me a call and we can't always have what we want. The stock is 'expensive' but it's about to become a lot more cheap once you see these new estimates post today's earnings report. Again, I am calling for a 10% beat on the top line for this huge company... instead of $6.07B in revenue, I am going to say $6.7+B. $0.86 is the EPS number, and with so many moving parts I cannot even hazard a guess on the EPS number. Remember Macs taking world market share, 2 year contract structure for iPhones will be revealed (how the revenue sharing works), price cut of $200 on iPhone drove demand, iPod Touch is going to surprise, etc etc etc. So we are about to report back to school season and go into Christmas season. Not a bad time to own Apple.
  2. Texas Instruments (TXN) - just because its a big cap chip name - I'd expect something positive about Asian/foreign markets blah blah.
  3. And that's about it folks - its the Apple show. If analysts find something to wring their hands over and bring the stock down or Apple is extremely conservative with guidance, you might finally get yourself a good entry point. Somehow I doubt it.
Tuesday
  1. Amazon.com (AMZN) - a very heavily shorted stock that just seems to continue ever upward - going into holiday season.
  2. Broadcom (BRCM) - another chip maker; I just sold my position out of this name a few hours ago but judging from the price action the stock is telegraphing a very nice quarter.
  3. CNH Global (CNH) - one of my agriculture plays; the only non fertilizer. I expect great things about their agriculture equipment business but they also have some exposure to construction equipment so on that part of the business I am unsure how they will do. Wild card is strong Euro might be hurting some of its business...
  4. Coach (COH) - should be interesting to what they have to say about the consumer. A push into China could be the wildcard that propels this into a "who cares about the US - they are going to China stock!"
  5. Juniper Networks (JNPR) - this is a play on the networking theme in the fund; however with its large run and slower growth than some of the other fish in the kettle, I have pulled back exposure to this name. Much like Cisco (CSCO) I expect to see continued positives from the bigger boys in this sector.
  6. Nabors (NBR) - an 'energy' company but one tied to the natural gas/land drilling - so its weakness could continue this 'throw the baby with the bathwater' situation we are seeing in the energy stocks.
  7. Panera Bread (PNRA) - once a high flier - I am curious what they say about the consumer and rising costs for their inputs
  8. Precision Castparts (PCP) - an industrial company that has had a huge run off of the aerospace bull market
  9. Satyam Computer Sciences (SAY) - an Indian outsource shop - unfortunately the strength of their economy is making the rupee rise in value, so could potentially be hurting some of the outsourcers...
  10. Smith International (SII) - this stock was trounced on Friday in the energy fire sale. Far more than anyone else in its peer group. I am curious if there is a specific reason - if not this could be a bargain pick up. While most oil service names I follow only fell to their 20 day moving average Friday, SII fell to its 50 and in fact broke it so this caught my attention.
Long Apple, Juniper Networks, and CNH Global in fund; long Apple in personal account

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