Sunday, October 28, 2007

Earnings of Note Mon - Wed

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While there is a the normal heavy slew of earnings reports the first half of the week, I don't see a lot of bell weather type of companies in the Mon - Wed time frame. Pre Wed 2:15 PM, it will be all about the Fed, and post 2:15 PM it will all be out the Fed so perhaps this is fitting.

Specific to the fund

Monday
#1 holding CF Industries (CF) reports - obviously the numbers will be good - just a question of "good enough for the market?", but with a relatively low valuation for the sector it seems to be in a good spot and the stock has performed very well the past few weeks despite a choppy market. Hopefully we get a nice run to par...

Top 10 holding, oil service company FMC Technologies (FTI) reports - similar to National Oilwell Varco (NOV) and Core Laboratories (CLB), I expect some good numbers - however many energy names have not been rebounding with the price of crude. Not sure what to make of this....

Tuesday
Agco (AG) - tractor maker; should see some sterling results like CNH Global (CNH) - Agco is not a current holding

Under Armour (UA) - not a current holding but a favored retail name; the stock has been weak of late but made a nice jump Friday. Also a momentum favorite. Since I am currently out of it, I'd like to see some sort of miss or not so rosy guidance to bring the stock down and chase out momentum investors and get this stock to a more favorable valuation level - love the story, but oh so pricey. I'd love to see a mid $40s print but it would take quite a calamity in the earnings for this to happen.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) - if I had to own a restaurant stock, this would be the one, but not at this valuation. Also will be curious to see if rising input costs such as cheese start to affect this "teflon" stock.

Wednesday
Transocean (RIG)/GlobalSantaFe(GSF) both report as they go into the Nov 9th shareholder meeting to confirm their merger. These 2 large deep sea drillers should report similar numbers to Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO) - good news on the deep sea front, some signs of pricing pressure in shallow water. See comments above for the stocks not generally popping along with the price of crude....

General Cable (BGC) - this producer of cable is making some nice moves to become of a more worldwide player and diversify across the globe. Good long term moves. Near term however, the stock has weakened quite a bit the past week, and sits right near its 50 day moving average of $68.70. I have this as a 1.5% position currently and we could see some similar issues that other 'industrials' are seeing - a weakening domestic market impacting their business more quickly than investors assume. So much like Cummins Engine (CMI) we *might* get a better price level to build up a position.

Mastercard (MA) - obviously credit card transactions; this stock tends to sell off after earnings as it reports solid earnings but "never quite good enough" and then rebound through the quarter. Let's see if that pattern repeats itself - I am looking at it's international growth numbers most keenly.

Garmin (GRMN) - I just closed this position late Friday; again I expect a good Christmas and would not be surprised to see yet another blowout quarter but there is always major earnings risk with these high fliers. If not for tax reasons, I'd prefer to be out of every position ahead of earnings since investors are so fickle and 1 missed penny or 2% lower forward guidance can chop a stock by 20% instantly. Blah.

Manitowoc (MTW) - I don't own this one, but essentially a crane maker; and it's become a global growth story type of stocks. As goes world growth, so goes demand for cranes. So it is one to keep an eye out in terms of guidance. This could be the type of company that, if it indicates any type of slowing down the road, could be a canary in the coal mine for global growth.

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