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Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Doing Some Disciplined Selling this AM to Raise Cash

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Since my cash position entering this AM was essentially nil, I have to do some selling this AM into the strength in case we get a pullback. Just part of the discipline.

I am selling with 2 separate thought processes - (a) either finding stocks that have had large moves off yesterday's lows or (b) paring down my energy exposure. When I did the self analysis of the portfolio by sector this weekend I was a bit shocked by how much of the portfolio is tied to energy. While my positions cover the gamut from coal to solar to oil service to deep sea oil drilling - with nearly 30% in this broad area, it is too much. While in theory solar and coal should trade relatively independently to companies levered to crude oil, it's still a very heavy weighting for this sector and with crude at record prices a pullback to low $80s is not out of the question. And you'd have panicked lemmings potentially dropping these stocks 10% on that sort of move. So I want to reduce exposure at least a bit.

Category 1 - Large movers, taking some profit
  1. Sold 30 of my 120 shares in Apple (AAPL) - ah! hate to do it, but so short of cash something had to go. Hopefully a sell on the news situation happens in the next few weeks in this name. This raised $5600, and basically reverses the buy I did late yesterday - although the shares I sold were from a much earlier time frame.
  2. Sold 100 of my 500 CNH Global (CNH) - with the stock gapping up today, after closing at $57 yesterday that large of a move could see some pullback in the ensuing weeks. This is not a well known momentum stock so it should not just take off and run, but if it does, I still have a nice sized position. This raised $6200.
  3. Sold 100 more of LDK Solar (LDK) - down from 1050 shares to 950. This raised $4100.
  4. Sold 75 of 350 shares in The India Fund (IFN) - Indian stocks are ramping nicely this morning. This raised $4300.
  5. Sold 50 of 170 shares in HDFC Bank (HDB) - this Indian bank also gapped up just like CNH Global; hard to trust gaps in a sketchy market. What I try to do is buy at the bottom of the gap when the stock pulls back. So in this case HDB closed around $109 and has been as high as $118 today, and created a gap in the chart between $110-$114. So if the stock retreats to $110, it can be an opportune place to buy.
Category 2 - Energy Overexposure
  1. While I do like the deep sea oil driller names they were hit the hardest on the recent pullback (unfairly I believe) but the energy complex has been selling of on 'good' news of late which is a change in character. So I remain cautious near term despite liking the fundamentals. I cut back on Diamond Offshore (DO) and Pride International (PDE) for different reasons. I really like Diamond Offshore, and the stock gapped up this morning on a dividend announcement so I took the opportunity to cut 50 out of 250 shares. Pride International has struggled technically around its 50 day moving average for weeks (months) - it is still not being viewed as a deep sea oil driller despite letting go of its land assets. So I cut back that name pretty hard and will revisit it when the technical picture improves. I cut 200 of 650 shares. These sales raised $5700 from Diamond Offshore, and $7000 from Pride International.
  2. I sold 50 of 250 shares in Core Laboratories (CLB) as the stock hit $130 after falling to $120 late yesterday. This raised $6500.
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Again, these moves are simply to raise cash. With a very low short ETF exposure and no cash I am not positioned well for a market that hits technical resistance and falls back down. If the market continues up from here I still have much heavier than normal long exposure. So all in all, I raised just under $50K. Until the market creates a clear direction it is best to remain cautious and take profits when offered.

Long all names in fund; no personal positions

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