CF Industries Up 8% - I don't know why

I mentioned earlier today I had flipped into CF Industries (CF) based off the Mosaic earnings report and CF being much closer to technical support

I wrote:
The hardest to cut is Mosaic as I believe it is still way undervalued but it is so far off any meaningful support, I am hoping for some pullback to get back in at a lower price. I also switched into some CF Industries (CF) yesterday during the afternoon selloff, as it fell to $71 or its 20 day moving average so I flipped from 1 fertilizer company to another. To put it in perspective while CF is near its 20 day moving average, Mosaic is now at $61.50, and its 20 day moving average is $52.50 or a whopping 15% away. So my theory here is I can stay with the agriculture (specifically fertilizer) exposure but I will be shifting assets in the near term from Mosaic to CF Industries. On any meaningful pullback I will reload Mosaic in a heartbeat.

Well darn thing is up 8% today and I don't see any meaningful news. I am not trying to be a daytrader but this is a substantial 1 day move so I am going to cut back this position by 25%, from 300 shares to 225 and I will let the rest ride. When Mosaic came out with great earnings I expressed surprised that not only was their potash business doing well, in fact their phosphates were doing even better. CF Industries never reacted off that news which was strange considering its a phopshates/nitrogen fertilizer company. Here is my entry from Tuesday on the topic:

While I thought potash was the main driver of these fertilizer stocks it appears phosphates is showing even more near term growth. While potash is the more secure (wider moat) piece of the puzzle, the near term dynamics for phosphates are better than I anticipated if the Mosaic (MOS) data is a proxy for the industry. CF Industries deals heavily in nitrogen and phosphates so I will increase my exposure in the name.

So I started building back a position Tuesday, which I topped off in the afternoon selloff yesterday, as the stock went right to a nice support level (20 day moving average). Nothing has changed fundamentally so I don't plan on selling any more CF, but with this 1 day gain in this topsy turvy market I am going to book some of that gain and continue to build the cash position. If we were in a more quiet market I'd stand pat (or heck, be adding) on CF Industries as its 2008 estimates are a complete joke (way understated) versus 2007, and it is even cheaper than Mosaic.

This sale reduced my CF Industries exposure to 2.2% of the fund. With that said, on the next pullback these fertilizer stocks are going to be forming the bedrock of the portfolio. They are major bargains compared to Potash (POT) or Monsanto (MON). I hate selling either Mosaic or CF Industries and somehow feel this will bite me. :)

Long CF Industries, Potash, and Mosaic in fund; no personal positions