Monday, October 15, 2007

Breaking Story: Stock Market Down

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"In a rarely seen event, the stock market was actually giving permission to fall by the helicopter force."

Now tomorrow should be interesting.

Questions I want to know answers to...

1) Do the Chinese even care anymore that the US market goes down?
2) Can we possibly be allowed to go down 2 days in a row?
3) Why do we we yawn?

Ok well at least 2 of these should be answered in 24 hours.
Actually much of what I like is holding up pretty well; I'd like to see some tankage in those names myself...

Fund is actually flat today on the strength of the 3 short ETFs, up from 4-5% each right now - finally doing what they are supposed to do (they have been a major drag on performance the past 6 weeks)

Cash is now up over 19% so I feel pretty well situated. If the market does tumble I won't be insulated completely but a lot better positioned than I was last Tuesday evening before I went to a more cautious game plan. VMWare (VMW) is down from $114 to $97 in a matter of 2 days, momentum works its ugly head both ways.... it would be nice to go back to the days of a normalized market with 3 days up, 2 down... and where stock picking not based simply on momentum trading works again. One can always hope. Let's see how the last half hour plays out.

2 comments:

msb said...

Did you see the reports concerning Goldman's "great" 3rd quarter earnings? Lots of unrealized level 3 gains.

TraderMark said...

I was reading all 5 have that issue. I am also reading that hedge funds have the same issue - they have stuff that is so illiquid they cannot price it, so they just have never marked it down. Hence they are probably inflated valuations. It makes performance easy to bake eh? Well I dont know how much ABC fell, so I am going to mark it at where I bought it, or well maybe 4% down.

I think this is behind the whole citibank thing - they don't want to be forced to actually price these things (or worse bring them on their balance sheets). This is why i was typing it all behind a curtain for those investment banks - they can seemingly print (within reason) whatever number they want in any 1 quarter. The joys of level 3 (and 2!)

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